US Options Course · Part 1 Foundations · Chapter 1

What an option is, and where the money comes from

An option contract is defined by six numbers, and four basic positions build every strategy. This chapter first teaches you to read a contract and draw its payoff diagram at expiry, then answers a more fundamental question: where does the profit on an options trade actually come from?

In this chapter
  1. Opening: right call, total loss
  2. 1.1 The six terms of a contract
  3. 1.2 The four basic positions
  4. 1.3 Drawing a payoff diagram at expiry
  5. 1.4 Intrinsic value and time value
  6. 1.5 Three ways options differ from stock
  7. 1.6 Stock or option
  8. 1.7 Five sources of profit
  9. 1.8 Win rate, payoff ratio and expectancy
  10. Three cases
  11. Checklist and self-test

After this chapter you can

  • Read the six terms of any contract and work out what you actually pay
  • Draw the payoff diagram at expiry for the four basic positions, with maximum profit, maximum loss and breakeven
  • Say which of the five sources of profit a trade makes its money from

Prerequisites

  • This chapter is the starting point; no earlier chapters needed
  • Know what buying a stock and selling a stock short mean
  • Can calculate returns as percentages

Conventions

  • Examples use Black-Scholes, a 4% rate, no dividends
  • Days are calendar days; a year is 365 days
  • One contract = 100 shares; P&L excludes commissions

OpeningRight call, total loss

On October 21, XYZ is at $100. You and a friend both think it will rise within a month. Your friend spends $10,000 on 100 shares; you spend $498 on 3 call contracts with a 105 strike expiring November 20, quoted at 1.66 each.

A month later the stock is at $104, up 4%. Your friend makes $400. At expiry the stock is not above 105, so your 3 contracts are worthless and the whole $498 is gone. You both called the direction right; one of you made money and the other lost everything.

Now a different ending: the stock rises to $115. Your friend makes $1,500, a 15% return. Each of your options is worth $10 at expiry, $3,000 for all 3; after the cost you make $2,502, a return of more than 500%.

Table 1-0 The same bullish view: P&L at expiry for 100 shares vs. 3 contracts of the 105 call
Stock at expiryStock P&LStock returnOption P&LOption return
95.00−500−5.0%−498−100%
100.0000.0%−498−100%
104.00+400+4.0%−498−100%
106.66+666+6.7%00%
110.00+1,000+10.0%+1,002+201%
115.00+1,500+15.0%+2,502+502%

The same view on direction, and the option turned the outcome into two extremes. The reason is that an option bets on two things a stock doesn't: how far the price rises and how fast it gets there. This chapter starts with the contract itself and ends by coming back to this question: where does the money in options actually come from?

1.1The six terms of a contract

Six terms fully define an option contract. Miss one and you don't know what you bought.

① Underlying

The asset the option is written on: a single stock (such as AAPL), an ETF (such as SPY) or an index (such as SPX). The underlying determines what is delivered on exercise: stock and ETF options deliver shares; index options settle in cash.

② TypeCall / Put

A call gives the buyer the right to buy the underlying at the strike; a put gives the buyer the right to sell the underlying at the strike.

③ Strike

The agreed price for the trade. Each expiration lists a ladder of strikes, commonly $1, $2.5 or $5 apart; higher-priced stocks have wider spacing.

④ Expiration

The day the right lapses. Standard monthly options expire on the third Friday of the month; there are also weekly and daily expirations (Chapter 2).

⑤ Multiplier

One standard contract covers 100 shares. The quote is a per-share price; the actual amount is 100 times that. After a stock split or a special dividend you may see adjusted contracts that deliver something other than 100 shares.

⑥ Premium

The price the buyer pays the seller, that is, the option's quote. For the buyer it is the maximum loss; for the seller it is the maximum income.

Reading a quote in full

A broker's platform usually shows the contract from the opening as “XYZ Nov 20 '26 105 Call.” The clearinghouse uses a standard 21-character code:

XYZ   261120C00105000
  • First 6 characters: the underlying's symbol, padded with spaces if it is shorter than 6
  • Next 6: the expiration date as YYMMDD, here November 20, 2026
  • 1 character: C for a call, P for a put
  • Last 8: the strike times 1000; 00105000 is 105.000

The 1.66 quote is per share. One contract costs 1.66 × 100 = $166, and 3 contracts cost $498. The contract covers 100 shares, so at a $100 stock price it controls a notional $10,000 of stock. Controlling $10,000 for $166 is the leverage we will get to later.

Who has the right, and who has the obligation

The buyer pays and gets a right, which can be exercised or abandoned. The seller is paid and takes on an obligation: when called on, the seller of a call must sell the stock at the strike, and the seller of a put must buy the stock at the strike. The premium is the seller's compensation for taking on that obligation.

Opening, closing and four endings

Your broker's order ticket asks whether you are opening or closing. Buy to Open creates a long position and Sell to Close sells it; Sell to Open creates a short position and Buy to Close buys it back.

An option position can end in only four ways: closed with an offsetting trade before expiry, exercised by the buyer, assigned to the seller, or expiring worthless. Most option positions are closed before expiry; the option itself is a price you can trade at any time. So when you buy a call, you don't need the $10,000 that exercise would take; just sell the call before expiry. But if you hold to expiry and the option is in the money, it will be exercised automatically (Chapter 2), and your account must have enough cash or margin.

Key point

“Buy / sell” and “call / put” are two independent dimensions. Buying a put is bearish, but selling a put is bullish: as long as the stock doesn't fall, the seller keeps the premium. The most common beginner mistake is to read “selling a put” as “going short.”

1.2The four basic positions

Pair buy or sell with call or put and you get the four basic positions. However complex a strategy is, it is built from these four positions plus the stock itself.

Long call = max(ST − K, 0) − c Long put = max(K − ST, 0) − p

ST is the stock price at expiry, K is the strike, and c and p are the call and put premiums paid at purchase. These are per-share P&L at expiry; multiply by 100 for one contract. A short position's P&L is the negative of the matching long position's.

Now some concrete numbers: stock at $100, strike 100, 30 days to expiry, implied volatility 30%. Black-Scholes prices the call at 3.59 and the put at 3.26.

Table 1-1 The four basic positions (strike 100, call 3.59, put 3.26, per contract)
PositionViewCash flow at openMax profitMax lossBreakeven
Long callBig rise−$359Unlimited$359103.59
Long putBig drop−$326$9,674$32696.74
Short callNo rise+$359$359Unlimited103.59
Short putNo drop+$326$326$9,67496.74

Breakeven is easy to work out: for a call it is the strike plus the premium; for a put, the strike minus the premium. A long put makes its maximum profit if the stock falls to zero: (100 − 3.26) × 100 = $9,674. That is also the short put's maximum loss.

Buyers' losses are capped; so are sellers' gainsFigure 1-1 · P&L at expiry, per share
P&L at expiryProfit zoneLoss zone
—Max profit (per contract)
—Max loss (per contract)
—Breakeven
—Probability of profit at expiry (stock 100, 30 days, IV 30%)
Switch between the four positions and watch where the line bends at the strike: the buyer's line goes no lower than minus the premium, and the seller's line goes no higher than plus the premium. Switching positions resets the premium to its theoretical value at 30 days and IV 30%. Drag the premium higher and the buyer's breakeven moves farther from the current price, and the probability of profit falls with it. The short put's maximum loss comes at a stock price of 0, beyond the edge of the chart.

The character of the four positions fits in one sentence: buyers trade a limited loss for a larger potential gain, and sellers accept a larger potential loss for a limited gain. A short call's loss is unlimited in theory, because the stock price has no ceiling. A short put's loss looks “limited,” but $9,674 is close to the full risk of owning 100 shares.

Another way to see a short put

Selling one 100 put for 3.26 is like placing a limit order to “buy 100 shares at $100” and getting a $326 deposit up front. If the stock falls below 100, you take the shares at 100, for an effective cost of 96.74; if it doesn't fall, you keep the deposit. So the risk is very close to “buying the stock at 96.74,” except that the upside is capped at $326.

1.3Drawing a payoff diagram at expiry

For a position made up only of options and stock, the payoff diagram at expiry is always made of straight segments. However many legs there are, you can draw it in three steps.

  1. Mark the kinks: mark each strike on the horizontal axis. The line can bend only at a strike.
  2. Set the slopes: each long call adds a slope of +1 to the right of its strike and 0 to the left; each long put adds −1 to the left of its strike and 0 to the right; short positions flip the sign; every 100 shares of stock add +1 everywhere. Add up the slopes in each interval.
  3. Fix the height: work out the actual P&L at any one point. At a stock price equal to one of the strikes, for example, the intrinsic value of every other option is easy to compute. Then join the segments using the slopes.

The slope has another important meaning: it is how many shares the position is “equivalent to” in that interval at expiry. A slope of +1 means each contract is like holding 100 shares; a slope of 0 means the stock price doesn't matter. Delta in Chapter 4 is this slope before expiry.

Example 1: a call spread

Buy the 100 call (pay 3.59) and sell the 110 call (collect 0.66), for a net debit of 2.93. The three slopes are 0, +1, 0. Below 100 both calls expire worthless and you lose 2.93; above 110 the profit is fixed at 10 − 2.93 = 7.07; breakeven is 102.93. Maximum loss $293, maximum profit $707. Compared with buying the call alone, you give up gains above 110 in exchange for a lower cost and a closer breakeven.

Example 2: synthetic stock

Buy the 100 call (pay 3.59) and sell the 100 put (collect 3.26), for a net debit of 0.33. Left segment: the put is in the money, slope +1. Right segment: the call is in the money, slope +1. The whole thing is a straight line with slope +1, and the P&L at a stock price of 100 is −0.33. It is exactly the same as “buying 100 shares at 100.33.”

The extra 0.33 is no coincidence. Buying the stock outright means paying $100 now; with synthetic stock, the $100 is paid only at expiry (through exercise). At a 4% rate, 30 days of interest is 100 × (1 − e−0.04×30/365) = 0.33. This is put–call parity, which Chapter 3 derives formally.

Example 3: covered call and short put

Own 100 shares and sell one 105 call (collect 1.66): this is a covered call. Slopes: +1 below 105 (only the stock), 0 above 105 (the stock's +1 and the short call's −1 cancel). Above 105 the profit is capped at 105 − 100 + 1.66 = 6.66; breakeven is 98.34.

Now draw “sell one 105 put” (collect 6.32): above 105 the profit is capped at 6.32, breakeven is 98.68, and below 105 the slope is +1. The two diagrams have exactly the same shape, and the 0.34 difference is interest again: the covered call needs $100 up front to buy the stock, while the short put's cash can stay in the account earning interest, 105 × (1 − e−0.04×30/365) = 0.34. Many people see the covered call as “conservative” and the naked put as “aggressive,” but on the payoff diagram at expiry they are the same bet.

Watch out
  • A payoff diagram describes only the moment of expiry. Before expiry, the option's value curve is smooth, and for the buyer it always sits above the kinked line; the gap is time value (Section 1.4).
  • For any one trade, the buyer's and seller's payoff diagrams are mirror images and always sum to zero. Before costs, options themselves are zero-sum; both sides can make money only when each also holds other positions.

1.4Intrinsic value and time value

Premium splits into two parts: intrinsic value, which you would get by exercising now, and time value, which you pay for the chance that “things could still get better before expiry.”

Premium = Intrinsic value + Time value

A call's intrinsic value = max(S − K, 0); a put's intrinsic value = max(K − S, 0). S is the current stock price. Time value is also called extrinsic value.

An option with intrinsic value above zero is in the money (ITM); one whose strike equals or is closest to the current price is at the money (ATM); one with zero intrinsic value is out of the money (OTM). A call is in the money when the strike is below the stock price; a put is the opposite.

Table 1-2 Stock $100, 30 days, IV 30%: price breakdown by strike
StrikeCall priceIntrinsic valueTime valuePut priceIntrinsic valueTime value
8515.3615.000.360.0800.08
9010.7010.000.700.4000.40
956.655.001.651.3301.33
1003.5903.593.2603.26
1051.6601.666.325.001.32
1100.6600.6610.2910.000.29
1150.2200.2214.8415.00−0.16

The table shows three patterns.

  • Time value is largest at the money and falls off on both sides. An at-the-money option's price is all time value. A deep in-the-money option is almost pure intrinsic value, and a deep out-of-the-money option is worth almost nothing.
  • At the same strike, a call has more time value than a put by the “interest on the strike.” At the 95 strike: call 1.65, put 1.33, a difference of 0.32; and 95 × (1 − e−0.04×30/365) = 0.31, with the gap due to rounding. The call buyer pays the strike later and the put buyer receives the strike later; between the two, that is the interest.
  • A deep in-the-money put can have negative time value. The 115 put is worth only 14.84, less than its intrinsic value of 15. Black-Scholes prices European-style options, which can't be exercised early, and receiving $115 a month sooner would earn an extra month of interest. Holders of American-style options exercise early to avoid this loss; Chapter 2 covers the mechanism in detail.
Time value is a hill centered on the strikeFigure 1-2 · Strike 100, interactive
Option priceIntrinsic valueTime value (shaded)
—Time value at stock 90
—Time value at stock 100
—Time value at stock 110
The distance between the blue line and the dashed line is time value, and it peaks at a stock price of 100. Drag the days left down to 1–3 and the hill collapses quickly as the blue line hugs the corner of the dashed line. Switch to the put and drag the days above 120, and the teal line near a stock price of 75 dips below 0: that is the negative time value of a deep in-the-money European put.

How time value disappears over time

The price of an at-the-money option (stock and strike both 100, IV 30%): 13.75 with 365 days left, 6.41 at 90 days, 3.59 at 30 days, 1.70 at 7 days, 0.63 at 1 day. Cut the time to a quarter and the price roughly halves. An at-the-money option's time value is roughly proportional to the square root of the time left, so the closer to expiry, the faster it drains each day.

ATM option price ≈ 0.4 × S × σ × √T

The 0.4 comes from 1/√(2π) ≈ 0.399; this is the Black-Scholes formula approximated at the money. For 30 days: 0.4 × 100 × 0.30 × √(30/365) = 3.44, a little below the exact 3.59, with the gap coming mainly from the interest rate. This mental-math rule works only near the money; for terms longer than a year or at high interest rates, the error grows noticeably.

1.5Three ways options differ from stock

Options and stock both bet on price, but options have three extra properties: they expire, their P&L is curved, and they come with built-in leverage.

Difference 1: a deadline

You can hold a stock indefinitely and wait as long as you like. An option ceases to exist after expiration, so you need to be right not only about direction but also before expiry. The direct cost of a deadline is time decay: a 30-day at-the-money call loses about 0.062 a day, or $6.2 per contract; with 7 days left it loses 0.124 a day; on the last day, 0.319. If the stock doesn't move, the buyer pays every day and the seller collects every day.

Difference 2: nonlinearity

With 100 shares, a $10 rise makes $1,000 and a $10 fall loses $1,000: perfectly symmetric. A 30-day at-the-money call is different: if the stock jumps $10 instantly, the option rises 7.30 from 3.59; if the stock drops $10 instantly, the option falls only 3.12. At expiry it is more extreme: a $10 rise makes 6.41, a $10 fall loses 3.59, and however much further the stock falls, the loss is still 3.59.

For the buyer, the P&L curve bends upward: gains accelerate as the stock rises, and losses slow down as it falls. The seller has the opposite. This curvature is called convexity, and Gamma in Chapter 4 measures it.

Difference 3: built-in leverage

For $359, one at-the-money call gives you the upside on 100 shares ($10,000) of stock. The standard measure of an option's leverage is its elasticity, also called the leverage multiple:

Ω = % change in option price% change in stock price ≈ Δ × SV

Δ is the option's Delta (how much the option rises when the stock rises $1; Chapter 4), S is the stock price, and V is the option price.

30-day at-the-money call: Delta 0.532, price 3.591, Ω = 0.532 × 100 / 3.591 = 14.8. If the stock rises 1%, the option rises about 15%. Repricing exactly: on a 1% rise the option gains 15.5%, and on a 1% fall it loses 14.2%. The two aren't equal; that's nonlinearity at work again.

Table 1-3 Stock $100, IV 30%: leverage multiple Ω of calls
Strike90 (ITM)95100 (ATM)105110 (OTM)
30 days: price10.706.653.591.660.66
30 days: Delta0.9040.7510.5320.3130.152
30 days: Ω8.511.314.818.923.2
7 days: Ω9.917.030.449.170.5
90 days: Ω6.37.58.710.011.3
The farther out of the money and the closer to expiry, the higher the leverageFigure 1-3 · Call elasticity Ω, stock 100, IV 30%
Each curve climbs from left to right: in-the-money options behave like stock, with 5–10× leverage; out-of-the-money options behave like lottery tickets, with leverage that can reach several dozen times. The 7-day curve shoots off the chart around the 103 strike, where the option is worth only a few cents and any small move means a gain or loss of several times its price.

For comparison, buying stock in a margin account lets you borrow at most half under US initial margin rules, for leverage of about 2×. Option leverage is often 10× or more, and a buyer never gets a margin call: the worst case is that the premium goes to zero.

Three costs of leverage
  • You pay time value: time value is the “interest” on the leverage, and it is highest for at-the-money options.
  • Leverage changes on its own: as the stock rises, an out-of-the-money option moves into the money and Ω falls; as the stock falls, Ω rises. You can't lock leverage at a fixed multiple.
  • High leverage means a low win rate: a 7-day out-of-the-money option with an Ω of 70 expires worthless most of the time (Section 1.8).

1.6Stock or option

Expressing a bullish view with options adds a bet that the stock will “rise far enough and fast enough.” The farther out of the money the strike, the bigger the rise you need.

Let's generalize the comparison from the opening: with the stock at $100, you choose one of four strikes expiring in 30 days, and we look at the return at expiry on each $1 invested.

Table 1-4 Return at expiry: stock vs. 30-day calls at four strikes (bought at theoretical value, IV 30%)
Stock at expiryStock95 call
(6.65)
100 call
(3.59)
105 call
(1.66)
110 call
(0.66)
90−10%−100%−100%−100%−100%
1000%−25%−100%−100%−100%
103+3%+20%−16%−100%−100%
105+5%+50%+39%−100%−100%
108+8%+95%+123%+81%−100%
110+10%+126%+179%+201%−100%
115+15%+201%+318%+502%+658%
Breakeven100.00101.65103.59106.66110.66

Look at the 105 row: if you expect exactly a 5% rise, the best performer is actually the in-the-money 95 call (+50%), followed by the at-the-money call (+39%), while the 105 call loses everything. At 110 the ranking is completely reversed. Which strike is best depends on how far you expect the stock to rise. Choosing a strike without an expected move is drawing lots.

Rise needed to break even = K + c − SS

When the stock ends between the current price and the breakeven, the stock makes money and the option loses: this is the “right but still losing” zone. For the 105 call the zone runs from 100 to 106.66, 6.66% wide.

In the amber zone, the stock makes money and the option losesFigure 1-4 · Return at expiry, stock 100, IV 30%
StockCall optionRight direction, losing option
—Option cost (per contract)
—Breakeven at expiry
—Option return if stock +5%
—Option return if stock +10%
Drag the strike to the right and the blue line's kink moves right and its slope steepens: you make more when you're right, but the amber zone widens. Drag the days longer and the option gets more expensive, pushing the breakeven out; what you get in return is more time, which a payoff diagram at expiry can't show. For that, see Case 2.

One more fact that is easy to miss: every row in Table 1-4 is an “at expiry” result. In practice you can sell the option early. If the stock spikes before expiry, the option's price still contains time value, and closing early may beat holding to expiry. So this table is only a starting point for choosing a strike; how to manage the position while you hold it has to wait until we have covered the Greeks.

1.7Five sources of profit

Money in options comes from only five sources. Say which one you are earning before you place the order, and you will know which risk to watch.

Source 1: direction

The most intuitive source: the stock moves far enough in the direction you expect. Buy the at-the-money call (3.59); with the stock at 105 at expiry, each contract makes (5 − 3.59) × 100 = $141. This is the money the previous sections were about. It requires you to be right about three things at once: direction, size and timing.

Source 2: volatility

You can ignore direction and bet only that the stock will “move more than the market expects.” Buy a 30-day at-the-money straddle (the 100 call and the 100 put together) for 3.59 + 3.26 = 6.85, which corresponds to an implied volatility of 30%. There are two ways this makes money:

  • Implied volatility rises: the next day the stock hasn't moved, but the market suddenly gets nervous and IV rises to 40%. The straddle reprices to 8.98, a gain of $213 per straddle. The straddle's sensitivity to IV is about 0.23 per point.
  • Realized volatility exceeds implied volatility: IV stays the same, but the stock's realized volatility over the next 30 days is 40%. At 40%, the straddle's fair value is 9.13, 2.28 above the purchase price. On average each straddle makes about $228; on any particular path it may be more or less.

Source 3: the passage of time (sellers)

Now sell the straddle instead and collect 6.85. If the stock stays near 100 for 10 days, the straddle's value falls from 6.85 to 5.60, and the seller makes about $126 per straddle. On the day it is opened, the straddle's time decay is about 0.114 a day, and it speeds up as expiry approaches. This money looks like it “arrives automatically every day”; the price is that the seller's loss grows quickly on a big move, because the nonlinearity described earlier works against the seller.

Source 4: mispricing

When the price relationship between options breaks, there is relative mispricing. Section 1.3 showed that the call minus the put at the same strike and expiration should equal 0.33. Suppose you see the 100 call at a mid price of 3.80 and the put at 3.26: a difference of 0.54, or 0.21 too much. Sell the call, buy the put and buy 100 shares, and at expiry you sell the stock at 100 wherever it trades. After 0.33 of interest on the $99.46 tied up for 30 days, you lock in about 0.21 × 100 = $21.

In reality, market makers' algorithms take almost all of these opportunities. Nearly every “mispricing” you see on screen has a sound explanation: an upcoming dividend, shares that are hard to borrow, the early-exercise value of American-style options, a stale quote, or a bid–ask spread so wide that trading three legs costs far more than $21. For individual traders, the more realistic use of this source is picking contracts that are relatively cheap: for the same view, for example, choosing the expiration or strike with relatively low implied volatility.

Source 5: the volatility risk premium

A large body of research finds that the implied volatility of index options is, on average, higher than the volatility realized afterward. The reason isn't hard to see: investors are willing to overpay for insurance, and sellers demand compensation for bearing crash risk. This persistent gap is called the volatility risk premium, and it is the main source of sellers' long-run returns.

Some numbers give a feel for its shape. Suppose SPY is at $780 and you sell a 30-day at-the-money straddle at IV 18%, collecting 32.12. If realized volatility over the next 30 days is only 15%, the straddle's fair value is 26.80, an average gain of about $533 per straddle. But in a month with realized volatility of 40%, fair value becomes 71.24, an average loss of about $3,912. One bad month takes 7.3 good months to make up. The premium is real, but it is payment for bearing tail risk; Chapter 6 discusses it in detail.

Table 1-5 The five sources of profit compared
SourceWhat you must get rightTypical tradesMain riskCovered in
DirectionDirection, size, timingLong calls / puts, spreadsMove too small or too slowChapter 7
VolatilityFuture volatility above or below IVStraddles, strangles, calendar spreadsIV falls, market stays calmChapters 6, 9
Passage of timeStock stays in a rangeShort options, credit spreadsBig moves, gapsChapters 5, 8
MispricingA price relationship that is truly brokenParity arbitrage, relative valueCosts eat the profit; misreading the causeChapter 3
Risk premiumIV stays above realized volatility over timeSystematically selling volatilityTail losses arrive all at onceChapters 6, 13

In real trading, one position often bets on several sources at once. Buying a call before earnings bets on direction, but also on “IV won't fall too much,” and the second bet is often overlooked (Case 2). Selling a covered call earns mainly from the passage of time and the risk premium, while also carrying a mildly bullish direction. Before placing an order, list each source involved and write down what you lose if each one goes wrong. You will find that the main risk in many “directional trades” is actually volatility.

From the field

For a stock that has just surged, a common approach is to sell out-of-the-money calls rather than buy puts. The reasoning maps directly onto this section's categories. A long put earns direction money: it needs the stock to fall, and soon, and even two weeks of sideways trading near the highs gets eaten by time decay. A short out-of-the-money call earns time and volatility money: it profits if the stock falls, goes sideways, or rises a little without passing the strike. The bet is that “the market overestimates how much further it can rise in this period,” not that “what has risen a lot must fall.” The cost is just as clear: a naked short call has unlimited loss in theory, so the strike, term, position size and stop-loss must all be set in advance.

1.8Win rate, payoff ratio and expectancy

If options are fairly priced, the expected P&L of all four positions is close to zero: buyers have a low win rate and a high payoff ratio, and sellers have a high win rate and a low payoff ratio.

“Fairly priced” has a precise meaning here: assume the stock price at expiry follows the Black-Scholes lognormal distribution, with volatility equal to the implied volatility in the option's price. Under that assumption you can calculate exactly each position's probability of profit and its average win and average loss.

Table 1-6 Stock $100, 30 days, IV 30%: win rate and payoff ratio for six positions (per share)
PositionProbability of profit at expiryAverage winAverage lossExpected P&L
Long 100 call (3.59)33.9%+6.21−3.17≈ 0
Long 100 put (3.26)35.2%+5.35−2.89≈ 0
Short 100 call (3.59)66.1%+3.17−6.21≈ 0
Short 100 put (3.26)64.8%+2.89−5.35≈ 0
Short 90 put (0.40)89.8%+0.40−3.53≈ 0
Long 110 call (0.66)11.9%+4.85−0.65≈ 0

Selling the 90 put wins nearly 90% of the time, which sounds tempting. But its average loss of 3.53 is 8.8 times its average win of 0.40. 0.898 × 0.40 − 0.102 × 3.53 ≈ 0: win rate and payoff ratio cancel out exactly. Buying the 110 call is the reverse: it loses almost nine times out of ten, and when it wins, it makes more than 7 times its cost on average.

The table makes one point: with fair pricing, there is no “sure thing” structure. Choosing to buy or to sell changes only the shape of the P&L distribution, not the expectancy. For expectancy to turn positive, there must be something you see more accurately than the market: direction (Source 1), future volatility compared with IV (Sources 2 and 5), or a price relationship that really is broken (Source 4). The passage of time creates no expectancy by itself; it is just the way sellers collect compensation for risk.

How big an edge can a view on direction give you? Suppose you are convinced the stock's expected annual return is 10%, 6 points above the 4% risk-free rate. The 30-day at-the-money call's probability of profit rises only from 33.9% to 36.0%, and its average value at expiry from 3.60 to 3.87: about $27 more per contract, or about 7.5% of the premium. Even with an expected return as high as 20%, the probability of profit is only 39.7%. Over a one-month term, being “bullish for the long run” gives you very little edge; what really changes expectancy is your judgment about near-term events, the size of the move and volatility.

Limits of the model

Real stock returns have “fatter tails” than the lognormal: big rises and big drops happen more often than the model says. That hurts sellers, because the model understates the average loss. At the same time, the market's implied volatility tends to be higher than realized volatility (Source 5), which helps sellers. Which force is bigger depends on the underlying, the term and the period; there is no answer that holds for good.


CasesThree cases

Case 1

Same $10,000 account, same view, three approaches

The stock is at $100 and you are bullish for the next 30 days. You have $10,000 in the account and three ways to play it:

  • Plan A: buy 100 shares, using all the cash.
  • Plan B: buy 1 contract of the 90 call (10.70, $1,070 in total); the remaining $8,930 in cash earns 4%, about $29 of interest over 30 days.
  • Plan C: buy 6 contracts of the 105 call (1.66, $996 in total); the remaining $9,004 in cash earns about $30 of interest.
Table 1-7 Account P&L for the three plans at expiry in 30 days ($, including interest on cash)
Stock at expiryA: 100 sharesB: 1 contract, 90 callC: 6 contracts, 105 call
85−1,500−1,041−966
95−500−541−966
1000−41−966
104+400+359−966
108+800+759+834
115+1,500+1,459+5,034

Worked example: with the stock at 104, B's P&L is (104 − 90 − 10.70) × 100 + 29 = +$359; C's options all expire worthless, −996 + 30 = −$966.

Above 90, Plan B behaves almost exactly like the stock, earning $41 less in every scenario. That $41 buys “insurance”: if the stock falls to 85, B loses only $1,041 while A loses $1,500. Where the $41 comes from is clear, too: the 90 call's time value of 0.70, minus 0.29 of interest on the remaining cash, is 0.41, almost exactly the price of the 90 put, 0.40. A deep in-the-money call plus cash is equivalent to the stock plus an out-of-the-money put.

Plan C is a “lottery ticket”: at 104, A and B both make money while C loses everything it put into options. It needs the stock above 106.6 to break even; at 115 it makes $5,034, more than three times what A makes.

Takeaway

None of the three plans is right or wrong; they express three different views. A bets “it will rise,” B bets “it will rise, but I want a floor under the downside,” and C bets “it will rise a lot, and within 30 days.” Before you place the order, ask yourself which one is yours. If you can't say how far it will rise, C shouldn't be your choice.

Case 2

Right on direction, still losing: time and volatility

Plan C's loss in Case 1 came from “not rising enough.” Two other ways to lose are just as common.

The rise comes too late. The stock is at $100 and you buy the 30-day 105 call (1.66). The stock goes nowhere for 30 days and the option expires worthless; on day 44, the stock reaches 110. Your view was right in the end, but the option no longer exists. Had you bought the 60-day 105 call instead, at 3.09, it would still be worth 1.66 on day 30 (an unrealized loss of 46%), and on day 44, with the stock at 110 and 16 days left, it would be worth 6.04, a return of +95%. The extra 30 days, bought for 1.43 more, decided how this trade ended.

Volatility drops. Before earnings, the market expects a big move and the 105 call's IV is bid up to 60%, for a price of 4.93. The day after earnings, the stock rises 4% to $104 as you expected, but IV falls back to 30%. The option reprices to 3.20, a loss of 35%. For this trade not to lose money, the stock would have to be above 107.12 the next day, a rise of at least 7.1%.

Table 1-8 Value of the 105 call the day after earnings (29 days left)
ScenarioStock priceIVOption valueChange vs. entry price 4.93
IV stays at 60%10460%6.70+36%
IV falls to 30%10430%3.20−35%
IV falls; stock price needed to break even107.1230%4.930%
Takeaway

A buyer has to be right about four things at once: direction, size, timing and volatility. Getting any one of them wrong can lose money. The answer is to match the structure to the view: if you're unsure about timing, buy more time; if IV is high before an event, consider a spread so that the volatility effects on the two legs partly cancel (Chapters 7 and 10).

Case 3

The “steady income” of selling puts

The stock is at $100. Each month you sell one 30-day 90 put, collecting 0.40 at IV 30%, or $40 a month. According to Table 1-6, the probability of a profit at expiry each month is 89.8%.

Suppose the stock stays above 90 for the first 11 months and you steadily collect 11 × $40 = $440. In month 12, the company cuts its full-year guidance in its earnings report and the stock gaps down to $75 overnight. You are assigned and must buy 100 shares at 90; this trade loses (90 − 75 − 0.40) × 100 = $1,460. The total for the year is −$1,020. One loss takes 36.5 months of premium to earn back.

More striking is how the model sees this: under the lognormal assumption at IV 30%, the probability of falling below 75 within a month is only 0.04%. In reality, single-day gaps of more than 20% in individual stocks, driven by earnings, lawsuits, regulation or industry shocks, are not rare. The model's “average loss of 3.53” understates the real tail.

Takeaway
  • The seller's win rate is real, but it is bought with tail risk. To evaluate a short position, don't look at the win rate; ask “how much will the worst one lose, and can my account take it?”
  • Before selling a put, make sure you are willing and able to buy 100 shares at the strike. If the answer is no, add a long put at a lower strike to turn it into a spread with limited loss (Chapter 8).

ToolsChecklist and self-test

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1-1Before the order: read the contract

1-2Before the order: draw the payoff diagram at expiry

1-3Stock or option

1-4Name the source of profit

Self-test: five questions

1You buy 3 XYZ 95 puts quoted at 2.40. How much do you pay? What are the breakeven, the maximum loss and the maximum profit?

You pay 2.40 × 100 × 3 = $720, which is also the maximum loss. Breakeven is 95 − 2.40 = 92.60. The maximum profit comes if the stock falls to 0: 92.60 × 300 = $27,780.

2The stock is at $100, the 105 put is quoted at 6.32 and the 95 call at 6.65 (both 30 days). What are the intrinsic value and time value of each? Why is their time value different?

105 put: intrinsic value 5.00, time value 1.32. 95 call: intrinsic value 5.00, time value 1.65. Both are $5 in the money; the difference comes from interest. The 95 call's time value ≈ the 95 put's price of 1.33 + interest of 95 × (1 − e−0.04×30/365) = 0.31; the 105 put's time value ≈ the 105 call's price of 1.66 − interest of 0.34. Interest pushes the time value of in-the-money calls up and that of in-the-money puts down.

3You sell 2 contracts of the 100 put and collect 3.26. At expiry the stock is at 92. What is the P&L on this trade?

Per share, 3.26 − (100 − 92) = −4.74; for 2 contracts, −$948. You took 200 shares at 100 with the market at 92, and the premium offset only part of the loss. Breakeven is 96.74.

4A call has a Delta of 0.313 and a price of 1.66, with the stock at $100. What is its leverage multiple? Roughly how much does the option rise if the stock rises 1%?

Ω = 0.313 × 100 / 1.66 ≈ 18.9, so if the stock rises 1%, the option rises about 19%. This is only an approximation for small moves: as the stock keeps rising, Delta grows, the option gets more expensive, and Ω falls.

5You sell a 30-day at-the-money straddle for 6.85. 10 days later the stock is still at 100 and the straddle is worth 5.60. Which source of profit are you earning from? What should worry you most?

Using unrounded prices, you make (6.854 − 5.599) × 100 ≈ $126 per straddle, and the source is the passage of time; if the IV you sold at is higher than the realized volatility that follows, it also includes the volatility risk premium. What should worry you most is a big move or a gap: a straddle seller's losses accelerate in both directions.