Oversold Rebound List Sep–Oct 2026

On September 30, a trader posted 17 “short-term oversold” stocks in the group chat. His reasoning: September's losers had been sold too hard, and once rates and oil came down, money would rotate back into them out of chips and AI stocks. This handbook takes apart every company on the list, plus the 3 others he actually bought in early October, one at a time.

His original thesis

• The rotation thesis: “Buy September's losers on the pullback, short the winners on the bounce.” Chips and AI infrastructure, which led in September, could pull back, while the consumer, financial, utility and industrial stocks that were sold off could rebound.
• Macro premises: crude oil falls back below $90; yields come down and rate-hike expectations cool; the equal-weight index (RSP) and small caps (IWM) keep outperforming the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).
• Instruments and time frame: buy the stock, or buy call debit spreads when volume is high enough—“try not to go naked.” Hold for about a month and aim for a 3% to 8% gain, with expiration at the end of October or on the November options expiration (OpEx) date. On October 6 he added that he had moved into a “buy stock, not options” phase, because the thesis needs time to play out.
• Discipline: enter in the last 30 minutes of the session; add only after confirmation; set a stop-loss on every stock.

The list and the actual buys

The nine trades averaged +0.7%. The 17 stocks on the list averaged +0.9% from September 30 to October 9, and 12 of them rose. A little over a week is too short to prove the thesis right or wrong, but it does show that these stocks have not yet staged a “clear rebound.”

Did the macro premises come true by early October?

In short: oil is swinging back and forth around $90, and long-term rates are still rising. Neither premise is on firm ground yet, so for every company in this book, “what to watch next” comes back to rates, oil and the company's own earnings report.

How to read each chapter

• Why he's watching it: why the stock is on the list.
• Snapshot: closing price, change since 9/30, forward P/E, dividend yield, RSI, next earnings date.
• Technicals: price action over roughly the last 50 trading days, moving averages, the 52-week range, support and resistance.
• Fundamentals: business model, growth, profit margins, debt, valuation.
• News: key news from August to October and the catalysts ahead.
• For and against: the case for a rebound, the case for further weakness, and confirmation signals to watch.

Fundamentals tell you what the company is worth, news tells you why the market is repricing it now, and technicals tell you where buyers and sellers stand at this moment. An oversold rebound trade needs all three.

Fundamentals: the business first, then the price

Banks are the exception. A bank's “debt” is deposits and borrowings, its raw material, so you can't compare it with an ordinary company's. For banks, look at net interest margin (NIM), price-to-book ratio (P/B), ROE and capital adequacy.

News: find out why the stock fell

When a stock falls 20%, there is always a reason: results that missed expectations, lowered guidance, management changes, lawsuits, weakening industry data, or simply money pulling out of the whole sector. It is very important to tell two situations apart:

Also list the catalysts ahead. Oversold stocks are most prone to big moves around earnings: if the report shows the problem is not as bad as feared, the stock can recover quickly; if it confirms the worries, the stock can drop another leg.

Technicals: price, moving averages, RSI and key levels

Putting the three together

Oversold means it was sold too fast; cheap means the price is low. Neither means it is about to rise.

Compare across first, then look at each one in depth. This chapter puts all twenty companies in one table and one chart to find which are the most oversold, which are the cheapest and whose earnings report comes first.

Comparison table

Click a column header to sort; click a row to jump to that company's chapter. Data as of the October 9 close.

A few facts jump out: 19 of the twenty closed below their 200-day moving average; WEN, CMCSA and MGM have an RSI below 30; MGM Resorts and Wendy's are furthest from their 50-day lines, and both have bad news of their own.

Are the biggest decliners also the cheapest?

Performance since the list went out

Earnings calendar

Oversold stocks swing the most around earnings. Sort them by date and you can see whose “test day” comes first.

Bank of America on October 14 is first, and it also kicks off bank earnings season. Company announcements are the final word on dates; those marked “estimated” or “not yet announced” may change.

The business in brief

McDonald's is one of the world's largest fast-food chains, with about 46,000 restaurants worldwide; of its roughly 14,000 US locations, 95% are run by franchisees. Most of its revenue comes from the rent and royalties franchisees pay, and the rest from food sales at company-operated restaurants. This rent-plus-royalty model has very high profit margins, but growth depends on traffic and same-store sales.

Technicals

• The close of $235.23 is 7.99% below the 50-day moving average of $255.65 and 18.25% below the 200-day moving average of $287.73. The 50-day is below the 200-day, a bearish alignment.
• RSI is 36.68: weak, but not yet in oversold territory below 30.
• Support: the 52-week low of $229.20 (intraday, October 5), only 2.63% below the current price; the lowest close of the last 30 trading days, $230.88 (October 7). $229 to $231 is the key support zone.
• Resistance: the stock gapped down on its September 23 investor day, and the prior day's close of $250.35 is the first resistance; above that are the 50-day moving average at $255.65 and the highest close of the last 30 days, $265.00 (August 28).
• The 52-week high is $341.75, and the price is 31.17% below it; over the past 52 weeks the stock is down 20.10%.

Fundamentals

• Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $27.70 billion, up 6.3% year over year; gross margin was 57.38%, operating margin 45.72% and net margin 31.72%.
• Q2 2026 revenue was $7.099 billion, up 3.74% year over year; EPS was $3.32, up 5.73%. Global same-store sales grew only 1.3%, and US same-store sales just 0.8%: traffic is soft.
• Valuation: P/E (TTM) 19.11x, forward P/E 17.81x, PEG 2.64, EV/EBITDA 14.75x. Wells Fargo says the P/E is at roughly a 20-year low.
• The annualized dividend is $7.72, for a dividend yield of 3.28% and a payout ratio of 62.71%, and the dividend has been raised for 51 years in a row; trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $7.76 billion.
• Total debt is $54.60 billion against only $822 million in cash, and book shareholders' equity is negative, the result of years of borrowing to fund share buybacks. ROIC is 17.80%, and interest costs are sensitive to changes in rates.
• The 34 analysts' average rating is Buy, with an average price target of $292.21, 24.22% above the current price; but since the start of October, Wells Fargo, Guggenheim, Bernstein and others have cut their targets.

News

• 2026-08-04Reported Q2 results: revenue of $7.099 billion, up 4%, and EPS of $3.32, up 6%, but global same-store sales grew only 1.3% and US 0.8%, a sign of weak traffic growth. mcdonalds.mediaroom.com
• 2026-09-23At its investor day the company unveiled the NEXT plan: $8.5 billion over the next ten years to remodel restaurants worldwide, with US franchisees putting in about $800,000 more per restaurant. The market worried about the cost, and the stock fell 4.81% that day, its biggest one-day drop since April 2025. bostonglobe.com
• 2026-10-05Wells Fargo cut its price target from $300 to $270 (maintaining Overweight), and Guggenheim from $290 to $250 (Neutral), citing soft US same-store sales and the execution risk the NEXT plan adds. stocktwits.com
• 2026-10-06The AP reported that a consumer sued McDonald's in federal court in Illinois, claiming its AI pricing tool amounts to “algorithmic price-fixing,” and is seeking class-action status; McDonald's said the suit is full of falsehoods and that franchisees set menu prices. The lawsuit adds legal and reputational risk. abcnews.com
• 2026-10-08Bloomberg reported on October 6 that US franchisees were caught off guard by the remodel cost of about $800,000 per restaurant and worry about taking on more debt while traffic is falling. How far franchisees go along will decide whether the NEXT plan moves forward. restaurantdive.com
• 2026-10-08Bernstein cut its target from $295 to $250 (maintaining Market Perform), saying the margin improvement is achievable but the path to US sales growth is still unproven; the stock still rose 2.61% that day to $236.90. stocktwits.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-11-04, before the open: Q3 earnings. The key questions are whether US same-store sales and traffic pick up, and what the NEXT plan's costs and subsidies look like in detail.
• 2026-12-01: ex-dividend date; annualized dividend $7.72.
• Developments in the AI pricing antitrust suit; the plaintiff is seeking class-action certification.
• How franchisees respond to the remodel cost of about $800,000 per restaurant, and whether the company publishes a more specific remodel timeline.

Macro sensitivity

• Rates: McDonald's is a high-dividend, low-volatility stock (beta 0.45). Falling long-term rates make dividend stocks more attractive and lower the cost of refinancing its $54.6 billion of debt; rising rates do the opposite.
• Consumer: US fast-food traffic is flat overall. Lower-income customers are price-sensitive, and inflation and rising oil prices squeeze their eating-out budgets. Bank earnings season, which starts in mid-October, will show credit card spending and is a useful reference.
• Dollar: Q2 revenue grew 4% in dollars but only 2% in constant currency, so a weaker dollar helped; if the dollar strengthens, overseas profits will translate into fewer dollars.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · mcdonalds.mediaroom.com · bostonglobe.com · stocktwits.com · abcnews.com · restaurantdive.com · stocktwits.com

The business in brief

Wendy's is a US burger chain with about 7,180 restaurants worldwide at the end of Q2, the vast majority run by franchisees. Its revenue comes mainly from franchisee royalties and rent and from advertising fund revenue, plus a small amount of sales at company-operated restaurants.

Technicals

• The close of $6.23 is 17.70% below the 50-day moving average of $7.57 and 17.15% below the 200-day moving average of $7.52; both averages sit overhead (moving-average data as of October 7).
• RSI is 29.78 (as of October 7), in oversold territory below 30, which means the stock has fallen very fast in the short term.
• Support: the 52-week low of $5.94 (intraday, October 5), 4.88% below the current price; the lowest close of the last 30 trading days, $6.10 (October 5).
• Resistance: the highest close of the last 20 days, $7.63 (September 14), and the moving-average zone at $7.52 to $7.57. On August 27 the stock gapped down from $9.04 to $7.82; the highest close of the last 30 days is $8.30 (August 31).
• The 52-week high is $10.12, and the price is 38.44% below it; over the past 52 weeks the stock is down 34.51%.

Fundamentals

• Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $2.20 billion, down 1.0% year over year; gross margin was 33.11%, operating margin 13.55% and net margin 5.72%.
• In Q2 2026, US same-store sales fell 7.0% and global same-store sales 6.3%; adjusted EPS was $0.18, versus $0.29 a year earlier. Trailing-twelve-month EPS was $0.66, down 31.4% year over year.
• The company cut its quarterly dividend from $0.14 to $0.07, or $0.28 annualized, a 4.49% dividend yield at the current price, and withdrew its 2026 guidance at the same time.
• Heavy debt: total debt is $4.07 billion and cash $341 million, for net debt of about $3.73 billion, more than 3 times the $1.19 billion market cap. ROIC is only 5.40%, and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $264 million.
• A P/E of 9.47x and a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 0.53 look cheap, but the forward P/E of 12.97x is higher than the TTM figure, which means the market expects earnings to keep falling; analysts forecast an average annual EPS change of -12.84% over the next 3 years.
• Short interest is 31.08% of the float, a heavy concentration of short sellers. The 24 analysts rate it Hold, with an average price target of $7.57.

News

• 2026-08-07Reported Q2: US same-store sales fell 7.0% and adjusted EPS was $0.18 (vs. $0.29 a year earlier). The company also cut the quarterly dividend to $0.07 and withdrew full-year guidance, a sign that the turnaround will take time and money. sec.gov
• 2026-08-26Reuters reported that Trian, which owns about 16%, has no current plans to make a take-private bid. Takeover rumors on August 12 had sent the stock up 14.7% in a single day; after the report, it fell 13.55% on August 27 as hopes of a takeover premium evaporated. kfgo.com
• 2026-08-27New CEO Bob Wright laid out a five-point turnaround plan (food quality and value, operations, restaurants, marketing, fewer discounts) and created a new chief marketing and customer growth officer role, filled by former McDonald's executive Tariq Hassan. Execution will decide whether the fundamentals stabilize. entrepreneur.com
• 2026-09-18Major franchisee Meritage Hospitality (operator of 314 Wendy's restaurants) filed for bankruptcy protection after already closing 60 locations, a sign of strain among franchisees; more closures may follow. The stock fell 3.58% that day. nrn.com
• 2026-10-08The company said it will report Q3 results before the open on November 5, with a call at 8:30 a.m. ET; this is the next chance for new management to give details of the turnaround. s1.q4cdn.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-11-05, before the open: Q3 earnings, with a call at 8:30 a.m. ET. Watch whether the same-store sales decline narrows, whether the turnaround plan comes with quantified targets, and whether full-year guidance is reinstated.
• The list of closures in major franchisee Meritage's bankruptcy, and the effect on systemwide sales.
• Menu and marketing changes once new chief marketing officer Tariq Hassan takes over.
• What Trian (holder of about 16%) does next; Reuters says it is keeping its options open.

Macro sensitivity

• Consumer: Wendy's customers are price-sensitive, and changes in inflation, oil prices and employment hit traffic directly. Bank earnings season, which starts in mid-October, will show how lower- and middle-income consumers are spending.
• Costs: rising costs for beef and other ingredients squeeze franchisee profits; NRN's report notes that franchisees have been hit by higher beef costs.
• Rates: with net debt of about $3.7 billion, falling long-term rates would help future refinancing, while rising rates would add to the interest burden.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · sec.gov · kfgo.com · entrepreneur.com · nrn.com · s1.q4cdn.com

The business in brief

PepsiCo has two big businesses: convenience foods, led by Frito-Lay (Lay's, Doritos) and Quaker, and beverages such as Pepsi and Gatorade. Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $98.24 billion. North America is the biggest market, and recent growth has come mainly from the international business.

Technicals

• The close of $125.97 is 7.05% below the 50-day moving average of $135.52 and 14.12% below the 200-day moving average of $146.68; the moving averages are in bearish alignment.
• RSI is 36.89: weak, but not in oversold territory below 30.
• Support: the 52-week low of $123.47 (intraday, October 7), only 2.02% below the current price; the lowest close of the last 30 trading days, $123.73, was also on October 7.
• Resistance: the intraday high of $129.50 on the October 8 earnings day, and the September 22 close of $131.19; above that are the 50-day moving average at $135.52 and the highest close of the last 30 days, $141.07 (August 28).
• About 23.95 million shares traded on earnings day, roughly 2.3 times the 20-day average volume of 10.52 million; the stock rose 3.73% that day and gave back 1.85% the next. The 52-week high is $171.48, and the price is 26.54% below it.

Fundamentals

• Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $98.24 billion, up 6.4% year over year; gross margin was 54.33%, operating margin 16.05% and net margin 11.09%.
• Q3 2026 revenue was $25.27 billion, up 5.58%, with organic revenue up 3.1%; reported EPS was $2.23, up 17%, while core EPS of $2.34 grew only 2%. Trailing-twelve-month reported EPS grew 51.2%, far from the core figure, so judge the earnings trend by core EPS.
• North America is the weak spot: PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA) organic revenue was flat and core operating profit fell 12%; organic revenue in the international regions grew 6% to 9%.
• Full-year guidance was cut: core constant-currency EPS growth from “the low end of 4% to 6%” to 1% to 2%, and core EPS growth from “the low end of 5% to 7%” to 2.5% to 3.5%.
• The annualized dividend is $5.92, a dividend yield of 4.70% with a payout ratio of 74.47%, and it has grown for 54 years in a row; the company plans to return $8.9 billion to shareholders in 2026 (about $7.9 billion in dividends and about $1 billion in share buybacks). Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $10.47 billion.
• Valuation: P/E 15.85x, forward 14.86x, EV/EBITDA 11.08x. Total debt is $51.88 billion and cash $11.16 billion; ROIC is 19.68%. The 24 analysts rate it Hold, with an average price target of $143.05.

News

• 2026-09-29JPMorgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral and cut its target from $170 to $138, saying the recovery in Frito-Lay North America's salty snacks stalled after Q1 and that hitting Q4 guidance now depends more on cost cuts. stocktwits.com
• 2026-10-07A Reuters analysis noted that after Elliott took a stake, the company promised to raise core operating margin by 100 basis points within three years, but first-half core operating margin was 16.3%, actually down 15 basis points year over year; GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are weighing on North American volumes, making the target harder to hit. businessday.co.za
• 2026-10-08Reported Q3: revenue of $25.27 billion, up 5.6%, and core EPS of $2.34, both better than expected, but full-year guidance for core constant-currency EPS growth was cut to 1% to 2%. The stock still rose 3.73% that day, a sign that the bad news was partly priced in. sec.gov
• 2026-10-08The AP reported that the company will raise prices on Doritos, Ruffles, SunChips and some sodas by a single-digit percentage to recover fuel, aluminum and agricultural costs; the $178 million tariff refund used up in Q3 will not recur. fortune.com

Catalysts ahead

• Price increases on North American snacks and some sodas (single-digit percentages) take effect; watch how volumes respond.
• The company says it will roll out additional structural cost cuts in the coming months.
• Peer signal: Mondelez (MDLZ) is expected to report Q3 after the close on 2026-10-27 (estimated date), a cross-check on snack demand.
• The date of the next (Q4) report has not been announced; that report will test whether full-year guidance for core EPS growth of 2.5% to 3.5% is met.

Macro sensitivity

• Oil and raw materials: the company says the price increases are meant to recover fuel, aluminum and agricultural costs; higher oil prices push up transport and packaging costs directly.
• Dollar: the company raised its estimate of the currency contribution to full-year revenue to about 1.5 percentage points; a weaker dollar helps the translation of international results, and a stronger dollar does the opposite.
• Rates and the consumer: with a 4.70% dividend yield, falling long-term rates would make it more attractive relative to bonds; but North American consumers are buying less, and the CEO said he “doesn't feel good” about the beverage business.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · sec.gov · fortune.com · businessday.co.za · stocktwits.com · stocktwits.com

The business in brief

Mondelez is a global snack company whose main brands include Oreo, Cadbury, Milka, Toblerone and Clif energy bars. Revenue is mostly biscuits and chocolate, and most of it comes from markets outside the US; cocoa is one of its most important raw materials.

Technicals

• The close of $60.41 is 2.03% below the 50-day moving average of $61.66 and 1.12% above the 200-day moving average of $59.74. The stock is caught between the two averages, and its direction is not yet clear.
• RSI is 49.69, in neutral territory: neither overbought nor oversold.
• Support: the 200-day moving average at $59.74; the lowest close of the last 30 trading days, $57.76 (October 1); further down, the 52-week low of $51.20.
• Resistance: the 50-day moving average at $61.66; the highest close of the last 30 days, $62.47 (September 10); the 52-week high of $66.65, with the price 9.36% below it.
• Since October 1 the stock has bounced about 4.6% from $57.76, and over the past 52 weeks it is down only 2.03%, a relatively steady trend.

Fundamentals

• Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $39.68 billion, up 6.9% year over year; gross margin was 31.15%, operating margin 11.83% and net margin 8.86%.
• Q2 2026 revenue was $9.355 billion, up 4.13%, with organic growth of 2.2% (1.5 percentage points from price, 0.7 points from volume and mix); adjusted EPS of $0.73 was flat with last year and down 2.7% in constant currency.
• After Q2 the company raised its 2026 guidance for organic revenue growth to at least 2% (from 0 to 2%), kept its guidance for adjusted EPS growth in constant currency at 0 to 5%, and expects full-year free cash flow of about $3 billion.
• Reported EPS swings a lot: Q2 reported EPS was $1.20, up 144.9%, while adjusted EPS was flat; the gap comes from items the company strips out of its adjusted figures. Trailing-twelve-month EPS was $2.73, down 0.7% year over year.
• The annualized dividend is $2.08, a dividend yield of 3.44% with a payout ratio of 76.23%, and the quarterly dividend was raised 4% in Q2; trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $3.09 billion.
• Valuation: P/E 22.23x, forward 18.81x, EV/EBITDA 16.01x. Total debt is $22.06 billion and cash $1.72 billion; ROIC is 7.89%. The 23 analysts rate it Buy, with an average price target of $69.00, 14.22% above the current price.

News

• 2026-07-28Reported Q2 (slightly before this book's time window): revenue of $9.355 billion, up 4.1%, organic growth of 2.2%, and adjusted EPS flat at $0.73. Full-year guidance for organic revenue growth was raised to at least 2% and the quarterly dividend increased 4%; this is the main basis for the recent fundamental picture. sec.gov
• 2026-09-22Launched Diamond Truffles, a premium Toblerone and Biscoff co-branded chocolate, worldwide; it is one of the ways the company uses co-branding and premium launches to drive chocolate sales. malaymail.com
• 2026-10-01Cocoa futures fell toward about $5,100 a ton, the lowest since July 27, and ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 2.25-year high; lower input costs help the gross margins of chocolate makers like Mondelez. tradingeconomics.com
• 2026-10-07Cocoa futures fell back from a three-week high to about $5,640 a ton as the market weighed ample supply this season against expectations of a smaller 2026/27 crop; third-quarter cocoa grind data is due out October 15. tradingeconomics.com
• 2026-10-08Peer PepsiCo reported weak North American snacks, cut its full-year earnings guidance and announced price increases, a reference point for demand and pricing across the snack industry; MDLZ closed up 2.17% that day. fortune.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-15: third-quarter cocoa grind data for Europe and North America, a read on chocolate demand.
• 2026-10-27, after the close (estimated): Q3 earnings. Watch the balance between price and volume, whether European sales stop falling, and the outlook for 2027 costs.
• The new cocoa crop: Côte d'Ivoire's 2026/27 output is forecast at about 1.8 million tons, down from about 2.2 million tons last season; the weather (El Niño) is a wild card.

Macro sensitivity

• Cocoa prices: cocoa futures closed at about $5,670/ton on October 9, down 4.9% over 1 month and 3.05% over 1 year. Lower cocoa helps chocolate profit margins, while expectations of a smaller new crop could push prices up.
• Dollar: the company expects currency translation to add about 2 percentage points to 2026 revenue growth and about $0.05 to adjusted EPS; a weaker dollar helps, a stronger one hurts.
• Rates and the consumer: with a 3.44% dividend yield, falling long-term rates would make defensive dividend stocks more attractive; organic sales in Europe fell 3.5% in Q2, a sign that consumers are sensitive to price increases.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · sec.gov · grocerygazette.co.uk · malaymail.com · tradingeconomics.com · tradingeconomics.com · fortune.com

The business in brief

Hershey is the largest chocolate and candy company in the US. Its main brands include Hershey's, Reese's and Kit Kat (licensed in the US), and in recent years it has bought salty snack brands such as SkinnyPop, Pirate's Booty, LesserEvil and Dot's. Revenue comes mainly from the North American confectionery business; international is a small share. Cocoa and sugar are the main raw materials, and swings in their cost have a big effect on profits.

Technicals

• The close of $162.74 is 6.7% below the 50-day moving average of $174.39 and 14.5% below the 200-day moving average of $190.28; the 50-day is below the 200-day, so the medium-term trend is weak.
• RSI is 38.86, in weak territory, but it has not yet fallen into the oversold zone below 30.
• Support: the lowest close of the last 30 trading days, $157.61 (September 30), with the 52-week low of $156.16 just below. The two are very close, which makes $156 to $158 the key support zone.
• Resistance: first the September 14 close of $173.68 and the 50-day moving average at $174.39; above that, $179.05 from August 28 and the 200-day moving average at $190.28.
• Over the past week the stock has recovered from $160.19 to $162.74, up about 1.6%, and it is now moving sideways between $157 and $163.

Fundamentals

• Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $12.16 billion, up 7.69% year over year; Q2 revenue was $2.787 billion, up 6.6%, with price increases adding about 12 percentage points and volume subtracting about 8.
• Q2 reported earnings per share (EPS) were $2.26, up about 631% from $0.31 a year earlier, mostly because of a very low base; adjusted EPS was $1.90, up 57%, which better reflects the real improvement.
• Gross margin is 38.38%, operating margin 18.02%, net margin 12.24% and return on invested capital (ROIC) 17.66%, strong profitability for a food company.
• On valuation, the P/E (TTM) is 22.24x, the forward P/E 17.55x and the PEG 0.91; the dividend yield is 3.57% and the payout ratio 79.37%, so a fairly high share of profits goes out as dividends.
• Total debt is $5.92 billion and cash $790 million; trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of $2.23 billion is enough to cover the dividend.
• In July the company narrowed its guidance for 2026 adjusted EPS growth to 32.5% to 35% (about $8.36 to $8.52). The consensus rating of the 23 analysts is Buy, with an average price target of $202.19.

News

• 2026-07-30Q2 revenue grew 6.6% and adjusted EPS 57%, and the company narrowed and raised its full-year guidance, showing that price increases and cost improvements are lifting profits; the roughly 8-point drop in volume is a worry. sec.gov
• 2026-08-20Reuters reported that Hershey is adding salty snacks to its Halloween lineup, and that early-season sales of small-pack candy are up by double digits year over year; Halloween accounts for nearly a fifth of annual US candy retail sales and directly affects third-quarter results. esmmagazine.com
• 2026-09-03The company named Dave Hulays, an internal finance executive with nearly 15 years at the company, as CFO, succeeding Steve Voskuil, who plans to retire. The smooth handover of the finance chief role reduces the uncertainty around management changes. foodnavigator.com
• 2026-10-01The company named Amanda Almond, a former PepsiCo and Bacardi executive, as president of its international business, effective October 12, succeeding Rohit Grover, who had run international since 2019; a sign the company wants faster growth overseas. foodnavigator.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-29, before the open: Q3 results. The focus is Halloween-season volumes, gross margin and full-year guidance.
• 2026-10-31: Halloween; retail data after the holiday will show how strong seasonal sales were.
• The cocoa price trend, which will shape 2027 costs and pricing strategy.

Macro sensitivity

• Hershey is a defensive consumer staple with a beta of just 0.09, so the stock moves little with the broader market; but it is sensitive to inflation and consumer budgets. In Q2, price added about 12 percentage points while volume fell about 8, a sign that consumers are buying less.
• Falling long-term rates usually favor high-dividend defensive stocks, making the 3.57% dividend yield more attractive relative to bonds; rising long-term rates would erode that appeal.
• Cocoa is the biggest cost variable, and lower cocoa prices help gross margin; since revenue is mainly in North America, the dollar has a relatively limited effect.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · sec.gov · esmmagazine.com · foodnavigator.com · foodnavigator.com

The business in brief

Primo Brands is a North American branded drinking-water company formed by the merger of Primo Water and BlueTriton at the end of 2024; its brands include Poland Spring, Saratoga and Mountain Valley. Revenue comes from bottled and sparkling water sold through supermarkets and other retail channels, large-jug water delivery to homes and offices, water dispensers, and in-store water exchange and self-service refill.

Technicals

• The close of $19.27 is 11.3% below the 50-day moving average of $21.73 and 9.2% below the 200-day moving average of $21.21. The 50-day is still slightly above the 200-day, but the price has broken below both lines, and they risk forming a death cross.
• RSI is 36.86: weak, but not yet in oversold territory below 30.
• Support: the lowest close of the last 30 trading days, $19.00 (October 7), is the nearest key level; below that is the 52-week low of $14.36, about 25% below the current price.
• Resistance: first the September 16 close of $21.15, then the 200-day moving average at $21.21 and the 50-day moving average at $21.73, which make $21 to $22 a resistance zone; higher up is $23.00 from August 28.
• Measured from the $25.32 close on its August 5 earnings day, the stock is down about 24% in total, and about 16% over the last 30 trading days.

Fundamentals

• Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $6.74 billion, up 11.52% year over year, partly because the merger changed the basis of comparison; Q2 revenue was $1.796 billion, up 3.82% year over year, which is closer to the organic growth rate.
• Gross margin is 30.75% and operating margin 10.70%, but net margin is only 1.49% and EPS (TTM) is $0.27: interest and merger integration costs eat up most of the profit, which is why the P/E (TTM) is as high as 72.36x. The forward P/E of 13.63x better reflects normalized earnings.
• Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.37 beat expectations; adjusted EBITDA was $385 million, a 21.4% margin. Full-year guidance for revenue growth was raised to 2% to 4%, and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.465 billion to $1.515 billion was left unchanged.
• Debt is on the heavy side: total debt is $5.70 billion and cash $369 million, net leverage was 3.42x at the end of Q2, EV/EBITDA is 9.20x, and return on invested capital (ROIC) is only 5.26%.
• The dividend yield is 2.49%, and the payout ratio based on accounting earnings is 172.74%, so the dividend relies mainly on cash flow: trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $371.5 million, and full-year guidance for adjusted free cash flow is $790 million to $810 million.
• Short interest is 11.25% of the float, a relatively high level; the consensus rating of the 12 analysts is Buy, with an average price target of $30.27.

News

• 2026-08-05Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.37 beat expectations, and full-year guidance for revenue growth was raised from 1%–3% to 2%–4%; the stock closed at $25.32 that day, up from $23.29, a gain of about 8.7%. sec.gov
• 2026-08-06Affiliates of the largest shareholder, One Rock Capital, sold 20 million shares in a placement at $24.47 a share (about $489 million), cutting their stake from about 26.9% to about 21.3%. The stock fell 5.6% that day to $23.91; the major shareholder's selling added supply pressure. ifre.com
• 2026-09-04Zacks noted that the stock fell about 8.4% in the month after earnings and that analysts' earnings estimates were revised down across the board, showing the earnings beat did not bring sustained buying. zacks.com
• 2026-09-09At the Barclays consumer conference, management said the supply chain problems have been resolved and the on-time, in-full delivery rate is above 90%, and that the exchange and refill business brings in more than $600 million a year and is growing faster than the company average; signs that service quality is recovering. quartr.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-11-05, before the open (around 6 a.m. ET): Q3 results, with a call at 8 a.m.
• Whether full-year guidance holds: revenue growth of 2% to 4%, adjusted EBITDA of $1.465 billion to $1.515 billion, and adjusted free cash flow of $790 million to $810 million.
• Whether major shareholder One Rock keeps selling (it currently owns about 21.3%).

Macro sensitivity

• Bottled water is a consumer staple with steady demand; but delivering to homes and offices takes a large fleet, so higher oil prices push up delivery costs and squeeze margins.
• With net leverage of 3.42x, falling long-term rates would lower refinancing costs, while rising long-term rates would add to the interest burden.
• When inflation makes consumers more price-conscious, retail bottled water is easy to swap for store brands; the company raises prices by a low single-digit percentage each year and charges a flat delivery fee, but its room to raise prices is limited by what consumers can bear.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · sec.gov · ifre.com · zacks.com · quartr.com · finviz.com

The business in brief

Lowe's is the second-largest home improvement retailer in the US, with more than 1,750 stores selling building materials, tools, appliances, garden and renovation supplies. Its customers are do-it-yourself (DIY) consumers and professional contractors (Pro), with DIY making up more than 60% of sales. Over the past year the company completed its acquisitions of ADG and FBM (Foundation Building Materials), expanding its push into professional customers and new home construction.

Technicals

• The close of $186.00 is 8.0% below the 50-day moving average of $202.19 and 19.2% below the 200-day moving average of $230.08; the 50-day is below the 200-day, so the moving averages are in bearish alignment.
• RSI is 41.94, in neutral-to-weak territory, and not oversold.
• Support: the October 5 closing low of $179.50 is the lowest close of the past 30 trading days. Below it is the 52-week low of $178.45, which makes $178 to $180 the key support zone.
• Resistance: first the October 8 close of $188.85, then $196.08 (September 22) and $198.17 (September 14), and above that the 50-day moving average at $202.19.
• Over the past week the stock recovered from $180.80 to $186.00, up about 2.9%, a short-term bounce above the support zone. Over the past 30 trading days it is still down about 10.6% (it closed at $208.05 on August 28).

Fundamentals

• Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $90.43 billion, up 8.16% year over year. Second-quarter revenue (quarter ended July 31) was $25.96 billion, up 8.33%, but comparable sales grew only 0.2%; most of the revenue growth came from acquisitions.
• Second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) were $4.27, flat from a year earlier. Adjusted EPS was $4.40, up 1.6%, including a $0.11 gain from tariff refunds.
• Gross margin is 32.99%, operating margin 11.35% and net margin 7.35%. Return on invested capital (ROIC) is 22.42%, a sign that capital is used efficiently.
• On August 19 the company cut its fiscal 2026 guidance to the low end of the previous range: revenue of about $92 billion, flat comparable sales and adjusted EPS of about $12.25.
• On valuation, the P/E (TTM) is 15.72, the forward P/E 14.87 and EV/EBITDA 11.25. The dividend yield is 2.69% and the payout ratio 42.27%; the next ex-dividend date is October 21.
• Total debt is $42.03 billion and cash $3.17 billion; trailing-twelve-month free cash flow (FCF) was $7.00 billion. The consensus rating from 35 analysts is Buy, with an average price target of $249.39.

News

• 2026-08-18Peer Home Depot's second-quarter comparable sales grew 1.7% and it kept its full-year guidance. The next day Lowe's reported comparable sales up only 0.2%, and the gap between the two became a focus for the market. sec.gov
• 2026-08-19Lowe's second-quarter comparable sales grew 0.2% and online sales 15.7%, but it cut full-year guidance to the low end of its range. The CEO said discretionary DIY spending was under pressure, a sign that the demand recovery has not arrived yet. sec.gov
• 2026-09-15The stock fell to near what was then its 52-week low. An analysis pointed to a frozen housing market, competitors using tariff refunds to cut prices while Lowe's did not follow, and weak new-home construction weighing on the newly acquired ADG and FBM. tikr.com
• 2026-09-24Lowe's began piloting drone delivery with Alphabet's Wing and DoorDash at its store in Matthews, North Carolina, with delivery in as little as 20 minutes. The near-term profit impact is small, but it shows the push toward faster on-demand delivery. dronexl.co

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-21: ex-dividend date (annualized dividend $5.00).
• 2026-11-18: third-quarter results before the open. Management had earlier forecast third-quarter adjusted EPS down about 7% year over year.
• Monthly data on existing-home sales, housing starts and mortgage rates.

Macro sensitivity

• Lowe's is very sensitive to long-term rates. Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield; falling long-term rates help home sales and renovation demand, and rising rates do the opposite.
• DIY is discretionary spending. When household budgets are tight, big renovation projects are the first to be put off; in the second-quarter report the CEO said discretionary DIY spending was under pressure.
• Tariffs affect the cost and selling price of imported goods. Second-quarter profit included $0.11 per share of tariff refunds, and second-half guidance assumes no further refunds.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · sec.gov · sec.gov · tikr.com · dronexl.co

The business in brief

Comcast is one of the largest cable broadband providers in the US. Its Xfinity brand sells broadband, wireless and TV service, and it also owns NBCUniversal (the NBC network, the Peacock streaming service, Universal Pictures and the Universal theme parks) and Sky in Europe. Broadband and the other connectivity businesses provide most of the profit. On June 29 the company announced that it would separate NBCUniversal and Sky into an independent public company through a tax-free spin-off, expected to take about a year.

Technicals

• The close of $20.66 is 15.5% below the 50-day moving average ($24.46) and 22.3% below the 200-day moving average ($26.60). The 50-day is below the 200-day, a clear downtrend.
• RSI is 24.52, below 30 and in oversold territory. The stock has fallen too fast in the short term, but oversold does not mean it has bottomed.
• Support: the October 9 intraday low of $20.48 is the new 52-week low, and that day's $20.66 close is also the lowest close of the past 30 trading days. The first level to watch is around $20.5.
• Resistance: first $21.56 to $21.79 (the closing range from September 28 to October 6), then the 50-day moving average at $24.46 and the September 14 close of $24.88.
• Over the past 30 trading days the stock fell from $27.06 on August 28 to $20.66, a drop of about 23.7%.

Fundamentals

• Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $124.9 billion, up 0.58% year over year. Second-quarter revenue was $29.94 billion, down 1.23% year over year.
• Second-quarter earnings per share (EPS) were $0.99, down 66.8% year over year. Adjusted EPS was $1.04, down 16.7%, and adjusted EBITDA fell 13.4%.
• Broadband customers are still leaving: domestic broadband had a net loss of 167,000 customers in the second quarter, and broadband revenue fell 5.5% to $6.28 billion. Wireless added 448,000 lines, and Peacock turned profitable, with second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $189 million.
• The valuation is very low: P/E (TTM) 6.69, forward P/E 5.90, EV/EBITDA 4.58 and price-to-sales (P/S) 0.59. The dividend yield is 6.39% and the payout ratio 42.73%.
• Total debt is $90.38 billion and cash $7.66 billion. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow (FCF) was $20.44 billion, so cash flow is still ample. The company suspended share buybacks on June 29 until the spin-off is complete.
• Gross margin is 69.39%, operating margin 14.66%, net margin 8.97% and return on invested capital (ROIC) 8.15%. The consensus rating from 27 analysts is Hold, with an average price target of $28.85.

News

• 2026-09-09At a Goldman Sachs conference, CFO Jason Armstrong said broadband customer losses had not improved in the third quarter and called rivals' $30 to $40 gigabit plans irrational pricing. The stock closed at $24.59, down from $26.33, a drop of about 6.6%. stocktwits.com
• 2026-09-14Comcast and Paramount Skydance are weighing options for SkyShowtime, their European streaming joint venture, including possibly shutting it down. The company is pulling back from crowded overseas streaming markets. thedesk.net
• 2026-09-25KeyBanc downgraded the stock from Sector Weight to Underweight with an $18 price target, citing broadband share losses and weaker theme-park attendance. Citi cut its target from $30 to $27.50, and the stock fell to its lowest level since 2013. 247wallst.com
• 2026-10-01Reuters reported that NBCUniversal is cutting several hundred jobs in its global streaming technology unit, mostly at Sky. It is cost control ahead of the spin-off, with limited near-term impact on profit. capital.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-22: third-quarter results before the open. Watch net broadband losses, wireless additions and adjusted EBITDA.
• Progress on the NBCUniversal and Sky spin-off (reports put the target at mid-2027).
• Whether buybacks resume once the spin-off is done.

Macro sensitivity

• Comcast has $90.38 billion of total debt. Lower long-term rates would cut its refinancing costs and make the 6.39% dividend yield more attractive; higher long-term rates do the opposite.
• Theme-park and advertising revenue track consumer spending, so weaker spending would weigh on NBCUniversal. KeyBanc says theme-park attendance has been falling since June.
• The main pressure on broadband is price competition from fiber and fixed wireless. That is a structural problem in the industry, and macro shifts do little to change it.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · sec.gov · valleynewslive.com · stocktwits.com · thedesk.net · 247wallst.com · parameter.io · capital.com

The business in brief

Bank of America is the second-largest US commercial bank by assets. It has four main businesses: consumer banking, wealth management (Merrill), corporate and investment banking, and global markets trading. About half of revenue is net interest income (NII), the interest earned on loans and securities minus the cost of deposits. Second-quarter NII was $16 billion, about half of the company's reported revenue of $31.6 billion; the rest comes from investment banking, trading, wealth management and various fees.

Technicals

• The close of $54.32 is 9.57% below the 50-day moving average ($60.07) and 1.74% below the 200-day moving average ($55.28). With the price under both averages, the short-term trend is weak.
• The 50-day moving average is still above the 200-day, but the average close over the last 20 trading days is only $55.88, so the 50-day is turning down. If the price stays below the 200-day, the two lines could form a death cross.
• RSI is 31.84, close to the oversold line at 30. Selling has been heavy, but the stock is not yet oversold.
• Support: the lowest close of the past 30 trading days, $53.52 (October 7), and below that the 52-week low of $46.12.
• Resistance: first the 200-day moving average at $55.28, then $59.47 (the close after the September 14 drop) and the 50-day moving average at $60.07, then the 30-day high close of $63.04 (September 3) and the 52-week high of $65.23.

Fundamentals

• Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $113.9 billion, up 9.25% year over year. Net income was $32.1 billion and earnings per share (EPS) $4.33, up about 27.8%.
• Second-quarter revenue was $30.2 billion, up 16.79% year over year, and EPS was $1.21, up 34.11%. Net interest income was $16 billion, up 9%, and global markets revenue was $8 billion, up 34%.
• The valuation is modest: P/E 12.55, forward P/E 11.21, price-to-book (P/B) 1.38 and PEG 0.68. Return on equity (ROE) is 11.20%, and second-quarter return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was 17.0%.
• Shareholder returns are steady: an annual dividend of $1.28, a 2.36% dividend yield and a payout ratio of only 29.57%. The share count fell 3.72% over the past year, and in the second quarter the bank bought back $6 billion of stock and paid $2 billion in dividends.
• Capital is solid: the second-quarter common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 11.2%. In September management said it expects 2026 net interest income growth at the top of its 6% to 8% range.
• Note: the “total debt” of $789 billion and “cash” of $868.1 billion on a bank's statements are mostly deposits, interbank items and securities, and can't be compared directly with an industrial company's. Gross margin, EV/EBITDA and ROIC mean nothing for a bank, so they are left blank.

News

• 2026-09-14At a Barclays financial services conference, CEO Moynihan said third-quarter investment banking fees should come in at $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, below $2 billion a year earlier, with trading revenue roughly flat. The stock fell 5.14% that day to $59.47, the start of September's decline. sharecafe.com.au
• 2026-09-16The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and most officials expect one more before year-end. That made deposit costs and the shape of the yield curve the focus for bank stocks. kuwaittimes.com
• 2026-09-22The S&P 500 banks index fell 3% that day. The spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields narrowed to about 21 basis points, the flattest since March 2025, and the market worried that Meta's AI assistant Muse could disrupt wealth management and deposit businesses. kitco.com
• 2026-09-28Axios reported that the KBW Bank Index fell 10.2%, from a high of 195.55 on August 17 to 175.57 on September 25, because expected rate hikes flattened the yield curve and AI assistants could help savers move low-rate deposits elsewhere. axios.com
• 2026-09-30Its Merrill unit agreed to pay $39 million to settle a class action over low interest rates on cash sweep accounts. The amount is small next to Bank of America's profits, but it shows that regulators and litigants are watching deposit pricing. kfgo.com
• 2026-09-30The Fed finalized its stress test overhaul. The stress capital buffer will now be the average of the two most recent results, which should cut year-to-year swings in capital requirements by 50% while leaving overall capital levels about the same. That helps big banks plan buybacks and dividends more steadily. kitco.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-14: third-quarter results at about 6:45 a.m. ET, conference call at 8:30. Watch whether investment banking fees land in the $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion range, net interest income growth and credit provisions.
• The big banks report third-quarter results in mid-October, and peers' investment banking, trading and deposit numbers will move the whole sector.
• The October and December FOMC meetings: the September dot plot showed most officials expect one more hike before year-end.

Macro sensitivity

• Short-term rates: the Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, and deposit costs are rising with them. If long-term rates rise more slowly, the yield curve flattens and squeezes the bank's net interest margin (NIM). On September 22 the 2-year/10-year spread was only about 21 basis points.
• Long-term rates: the 10-year Treasury yield was about 5.27% on October 7. Higher long rates lift returns on new loans and reinvested funds, but they lower the market value of the fixed-rate bonds the bank holds and discourage corporate bond issuance and M&A, which hurts investment banking revenue.
• Oil and inflation: the US–Iran conflict pushed oil higher, with WTI reaching $90.82 on September 1 and about $88.48 on October 7. High inflation is the Fed's main reason to keep hiking. In September management said consumer spending was strong and credit quality good, so pressure from bad loans is limited for now.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · theasianbanker.com · webull.com · sharecafe.com.au · kuwaittimes.com · mufgresearch.com · kitco.com · axios.com · kfgo.com · kitco.com · investinglive.com · swissinfo.ch · newsroom.bankofamerica.com

The business in brief

Blackstone is the world's largest alternative asset manager, running private equity, real estate, private credit and multi-asset funds, with about $1.346 trillion in assets under management at the end of the second quarter. Revenue comes in two main forms: management fees charged on assets under management, which are fairly stable, and performance fees earned when funds sell assets at a profit, which swing widely and depend on the exit environment.

Technicals

• The close of $114.29 is 12.52% below the 50-day moving average ($130.64) and 10.28% below the 200-day moving average ($127.39). With the price under both averages, the trend is weak.
• RSI is 35.81, weak but not yet in oversold territory below 30. The stock has slid steadily since closing at $149.32 on August 13 and is down about 23.5% since then.
• Support: the lowest close of the past 30 trading days, $111.65 (October 5). Since September 30 the stock has moved sideways between $111.65 and $114.29. Below that is the 52-week low of $101.73.
• Resistance: first the September 25 close of $118.42, then the 200-day moving average at $127.39 and the 50-day moving average at $130.64. The 30-day high close is $143.24 (August 31) and the 52-week high is $166.39.

Fundamentals

• Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $15.48 billion, up 14.64% year over year, and earnings per share (EPS) were $4.47, up 20.78%. Operating margin is 48.48% and net margin 22.73%.
• Second-quarter revenue was $4.887 billion, up 28.57% year over year, and EPS was $1.54, up 57.32%. Distributable earnings were $2 billion ($1.52 per share), up 26%, and fee-related earnings were $1.8 billion, up 22%.
• It keeps getting bigger: assets under management reached $1.346 trillion at the end of the second quarter, up 11% year over year. Inflows were $68.3 billion in the quarter and $262.5 billion over the past twelve months. Perpetual capital is $555.6 billion, about 41% of the total.
• Valuation: P/E 25.59, forward P/E 18.12, PEG 1.28 and price-to-sales (P/S) 9.18. The stock is down 29.65% over the past 52 weeks.
• Dividend: $4.74 per share over the past twelve months, a 4.15% dividend yield. Measured against accounting profit the payout ratio is 117.08%, because Blackstone pays dividends out of distributable earnings, which are measured differently from accounting EPS. The dividend moves with performance fees; the second-quarter dividend was $1.29 per share.
• Balance sheet: total debt is $15.3 billion and cash $2.66 billion. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow (FCF) was $5.49 billion; ROIC is 17.03% and ROE 31.37%.

News

• 2026-09-03Its flagship private credit fund BCRED ($77.2 billion) received third-quarter redemption requests for about 10% of its shares ($4.3 billion). It again paid out only up to its 5% cap, for net outflows of about 3%, a sign that wealthy individual investors are still wary of private credit. bnnbloomberg.ca
• 2026-09-10Blackstone agreed to buy Flow Control Holdings, a maker of liquid-cooling components for data centers, from Audax. The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter and adds to its push into AI infrastructure as a growth line. blackstone.com
• 2026-09-22Blackstone issued an intra-quarter update: from July 1 to September 22 it had realized more than $350 million in performance fees and investment income, about 90% of it performance fees. The next day the stock fell 3.82% in a broad selloff in financials. blackstone.com
• 2026-09-26Joe Baratta, head of private equity, will leave by year-end, and the company says it will not name a successor. The heads of real estate and of the growth fund had already left, and the latest flagship private equity fund raised $21 billion, short of its $30 billion target. theedgemalaysia.com
• 2026-10-07Blackstone's data center company AirTrunk announced another $1 billion investment to deploy liquid cooling at its campus in Inzai, Japan, funded by green loans from several banks. The data center assets are still expanding. thestar.com.my

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-22: third-quarter results before the open, conference call at 9:00 a.m. ET. Watch distributable earnings, quarterly inflows and BCRED redemptions.
• BCRED's redemption requests next quarter: they ran at about 10% in both the second and third quarters, with payouts capped at 5%.
• The Flow Control Holdings deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter; private equity head Baratta leaves by year-end.

Macro sensitivity

• Long-term rates: the 10-year Treasury yield was about 5.27% on October 7, and the 30-year briefly hit a 24-year high of 5.73%. High long rates push down valuations of real estate and private equity assets and make assets harder to sell, which reduces performance fees.
• Fed hikes: the Fed raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, and most officials expect one more hike before year-end. Private credit loans are mostly floating-rate, so interest income rises, but so does the strain on borrowers, especially software companies hit by AI.
• Investor sentiment: wealthy individuals are pulling money out of non-traded private credit funds, and BCRED received third-quarter redemption requests of about 10%. The individual investor channel has been a major source of Blackstone's fundraising growth in recent years.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · pulse2.com · bnnbloomberg.ca · blackstone.com · blackstone.com · blackstone.com · theedgemalaysia.com · thestar.com.my · kitco.com · kuwaittimes.com · investinglive.com

The business in brief

Viking Holdings is an upscale cruise company best known for European river cruises (on the Rhine, the Danube and other rivers). It also runs ocean and expedition cruises. Its customers are mainly older, higher-income travelers from North America. Most revenue comes from fares: guests usually book more than a year ahead, fares include many services, and onboard spending is a small share.

Technicals

• The October 9 close of $81.62 is 9.42% below the 50-day moving average ($90.11) and 3.03% below the 200-day moving average ($84.17). (The moving averages and RSI are as of the October 8 close.)
• RSI is 42.86, neutral to weak, neither oversold nor overbought. Since October 2 the stock has traded in a narrow range between $80.56 and $81.64.
• Support: the lowest close of the past 30 trading days, $78.20 (October 1). The 52-week low of $56.37 is far below.
• Resistance: first the 200-day moving average at $84.17, then the September 21 close of $86.05 and the 30-day high close of $88.50 (August 28), then the 50-day moving average at $90.11. The 52-week high is $110.09.
• The August 5 close of $108.26 was the recent high; the stock is down about 24.6% since then.

Fundamentals

• Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $6.97 billion, up 20.02% year over year. Net income was $1.35 billion and earnings per share (EPS) $3.01, up 65.40%. Gross margin is 44.28%, operating margin 23.27% and net margin 19.33%.
• Second-quarter revenue was $2.19 billion, up 16.49% year over year, and EPS was $1.31, up 32.32%. Occupancy was 94.4%, and net yield per passenger cruise day rose 6.2%. The first quarter is the off season, with a loss of $54.38 million that quarter; the business is clearly seasonal.
• Bookings are strong: as of August 9, 96% of 2026 capacity was sold, with $6.386 billion in bookings, up 13% year over year. For 2027, 53% was sold, with bookings of $4.711 billion, up 21%. Capacity grows 7% in 2026 and 15% in 2027.
• The valuation is rich: P/E 27.14, forward P/E 22.55, EV/EBITDA 20.25 and price-to-sales (P/S) 5.23. Because profits are growing fast, the PEG is only 0.85.
• Balance sheet: total debt is $6.19 billion and cash $4.00 billion, with net leverage of 1.2x at the end of the second quarter. Shipbuilding is expensive: trailing-twelve-month capital expenditure (capex) was $1.48 billion and free cash flow (FCF) $1.15 billion. ROIC is 47.65%.
• No dividend. In September it announced a share buyback of up to $1 billion, about 2.7% of its current market value of $36.45 billion.

News

• 2026-08-19Second-quarter revenue was $2.19 billion, up 16.5%, EPS was $1.31 and 2027 bookings were up 21%, showing that demand from high-end customers remains solid. cruiseindustrynews.com
• 2026-08-19On the call, management said low water in Europe affected more than half of river sailing days from mid-July to mid-August. About 10% to 12% of affected guests canceled, the company issued compensation vouchers, and the stock fell 7.65% that day. seatrade-cruise.com
• 2026-09-09Reports said MSC Cruises may order up to 10 river ships for delivery in 2028 to 2030. Investors worried about more competition over the long run, and the stock fell 3.42% that day. goldesel.de
• 2026-09-10The board authorized a share buyback of up to $1 billion. The company said it reflects confidence in the long-term outlook, and buybacks can support the stock when it falls. financialcontent.com
• 2026-09-11Tensions in the Middle East drove oil up to near $100 a barrel. Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line hit 52-week lows and Viking fell with the group; fuel costs weigh on every cruise stock. travelextra.ie
• 2026-09-28Stifel cut its price target from $120 to $115, and Truist cut its target from $102 to $98 on September 24. Both kept Buy ratings: analysts are trimming expectations without changing their view. stockanalysis.com

Catalysts ahead

• Around 2026-11-18: third-quarter earnings (the date shown on data websites; the company has not formally announced it). Watch the effect of low water on third-quarter costs and vouchers, and progress on 2027 bookings.
• Autumn rain in Europe and water levels on the Rhine and Danube: higher water would mean fewer itinerary changes and less compensation.
• Progress on the $1 billion buyback, and new ship deliveries; the river ship Viking Rota was delivered on October 7.

Macro sensitivity

• Oil: fuel is one of a cruise line's main costs. On September 9 Brent topped $101 a barrel and cruise stocks fell across the board; by October 7 WTI was back to about $88.48, and lower oil helps costs.
• Consumer spending and the wealth effect: Viking's customers are older and wealthier, so they are more sensitive to stock and asset prices than to general inflation. A sharp market pullback could hurt bookings for high-end travel.
• The dollar and rates: most customers come from North America, so a stronger dollar makes European trips cheaper for American travelers. Fed hikes and a 10-year Treasury yield of about 5.27% raise the cost of financing new ships.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · cruiseindustrynews.com · seatrade-cruise.com · goldesel.de · cruiseindustrynews.com · financialcontent.com · travelextra.ie · webull.ca · vikingcruises.com · swissinfo.ch · investinglive.com

The business in brief

MGM Resorts is a large casino resort operator. It runs several resorts on the Las Vegas Strip (such as Bellagio and MGM Grand), regional casinos across the US and MGM China in Macau, and it runs the online betting business BetMGM in a joint venture with Entain. Its integrated resort in Osaka, Japan, is scheduled to open in 2030. Revenue comes from gaming, rooms, food and beverage, and entertainment; in the second quarter the Las Vegas Strip provided about half of revenue.

Technicals

• The close of $29.27 is 26.31% below the 50-day moving average ($39.72) and 26.12% below the 200-day moving average ($39.62), a very wide gap. (The moving averages and RSI are as of the October 8 close.)
• RSI is only 14.26, far below 30: extremely oversold. Oversold conditions can last for a while, so you need to see signs that the price has stopped falling.
• Support: the stock is right at its 52-week low of $29.19, and the October 9 close of $29.27 is also the lowest close of the past 30 trading days. Below $29.19 there is no lower price reference from the past year.
• Resistance: the gap between the $33.69 close on September 24, after the gap down, and the $37.85 close on September 23, before it, is major resistance. Above that are the two moving averages at $39.62 to $39.72 and the 30-day high close of $42.28 (August 28).
• The stock is down about 30.8% from $42.28 on August 28 and about 43.3% from its 52-week high of $51.59.

Fundamentals

• Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $17.76 billion, up 3.19% year over year. Net income was only $424 million, for a net margin of 2.40% and an operating margin of 6.49%. Earnings per share (EPS) were $1.60, down 13.16%.
• Second-quarter revenue was $4.45 billion, up 1.05% year over year. Diluted EPS was $1.11 versus only $0.18 a year earlier, so the 519.40% increase mostly reflects a low base. Adjusted EPS was $0.59, down from $0.79, and adjusted EBITDA was $610 million, down from $648 million.
• By segment: Las Vegas Strip revenue was $2.17 billion, up 3%, with EBITDAR of $735 million, up 3%. MGM China EBITDAR was $257 million, down 15%. US regional casino EBITDAR fell 9%.
• The valuation looks cheap: P/E 18.32, forward 17.87, price-to-sales (P/S) 0.43 and a free cash flow (FCF) yield of 19.79%. But enterprise value (EV) of $34.95 billion is far larger than the $7.36 billion market value, and EV/EBITDA is 15.62, because the company carries heavy debt.
• Debt: total debt is $30.16 billion, including large lease liabilities from selling its properties to real estate investment trusts and leasing them back. Cash is $2.76 billion, debt to EBITDA is 6.74x and interest coverage is 2.82x.
• No dividend; it returns cash to shareholders through buybacks. The share count fell 9.11% over the past year, and about $1.4 billion of buyback authorization remained at the end of June. Short interest is 10.59% of the float, with 9.75 days to cover, which is high.

News

• 2026-09-23Major shareholder People Inc. (part of Diller's group, with a stake of about 26.5%) withdrew the take-private offer it made in June at $48.30 per share, about $18 billion in total. With hopes for a deal gone, the stock fell 10.99% the next day to $33.69. casino.org
• 2026-09-24The Wall Street Journal reported that MGM is now considering a bid for People Inc. itself, which would turn MGM from takeover target into potential buyer. How any deal would be structured is still unclear. thewrap.com
• 2026-09-30At the Global Gaming Expo, CEO Hornbuckle did not rule out a bid for People Inc. and said the company is badly undervalued, pointing to the value of BetMGM, Macau, the Japan project and the Las Vegas assets. autobound.ai
• 2026-09-30Las Vegas had about 3.03 million visitors in August, down 4.3% year over year. Hotel occupancy was 74.1% and the average room rate fell 7.4% to $150. Part of the drop came from the Labor Day holiday moving into September, but weak demand hurts MGM's biggest business. news3lv.com
• 2026-10-01Macau's September gaming revenue was 18.06 billion patacas, down 1.2% year over year and the fourth straight monthly decline. Premium mass and VIP play were weak, putting pressure on MGM China's profits. casino.org

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-28: third-quarter earnings after the close, conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET.
• BetMGM's third-quarter update (the call notice went out on October 6).
• Whether People Inc. and MGM come up with a new deal; Las Vegas visitor numbers for September (expected in late October) and Macau's October gaming revenue (early November).

Macro sensitivity

• Consumer spending: Las Vegas visitors fell 4.3% year over year in August and the average room rate fell 7.4%. High inflation and rising oil prices (WTI about $88.48 on October 7) squeeze the travel budgets of low- and middle-income visitors.
• Rates: MGM has about $30.16 billion of total debt. With the Fed having raised rates to 3.75% to 4.00% in September and the 10-year Treasury yield at about 5.27%, refinancing gets more expensive and highly leveraged stocks fall further out of favor.
• China and Macau: Macau's September gaming revenue fell 1.2% year over year, the fourth monthly decline in a row. Growth for the first nine months is 3.2%, a clear slowdown from 10.9% in January through May, which reflects the state of high-end consumer spending in China.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · sec.gov · casino.org · thenevadaindependent.com · thewrap.com · autobound.ai · news3lv.com · casino.org · finviz.com · kuwaittimes.com · investinglive.com

The business in brief

RTX is one of the largest US aerospace and defense companies, with three segments: Collins Aerospace (avionics, cabins and aircraft systems), Pratt & Whitney (commercial and military aircraft engines) and Raytheon (missiles, air defense and radar). Revenue splits roughly into commercial aerospace and defense. At the end of the second quarter of 2026 the backlog was $289 billion: $170 billion commercial and $119 billion defense.

Technicals

• The close of $185.97 is 8.5% below the 50-day moving average ($203.30) and 4.6% below the 200-day moving average ($194.99). The 50-day is still above the 200-day, but the price has broken below both, so the short-term trend is weak.
• RSI is 37.3: weak, and close to but not yet in oversold territory below 30.
• Support: the closing low of the past 30 trading days, $180.26 (October 7), and the intraday low of $179.02 (October 8); below that, the 52-week low of $155.64.
• Resistance: the 200-day moving average around $195, the 50-day around $203 and the 30-day closing high of $211.71 (August 28). The 52-week high is $226.88.
• From the August 18 close of $225.49 to $180.26 on October 7, the stock fell about 20%. Over the last 10 trading days it has closed in a narrow range of $180.26–$187.66.

Fundamentals

• Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $93.5 billion, up 11.8% year over year. Second-quarter revenue was $24.7 billion, up 14.5%, with organic growth of 16%.
• Margins in aircraft manufacturing are modest: gross margin 20.4%, operating margin 12.3%, net margin 8.3%. Trailing-twelve-month EPS was $5.68, up 24.9% year over year. Second-quarter GAAP EPS was $1.57, up 28.7%, and adjusted EPS was $1.89.
• On July 23 the company raised its 2026 guidance: adjusted sales of $95–96 billion (previously $92.5–93.5 billion), adjusted EPS of $7.10–$7.25 (previously $6.70–$6.90) and free cash flow (FCF) of $8.5–8.75 billion.
• The valuation is rich: P/E (TTM) 32.7, forward P/E 25.1, PEG 2.49 and EV/EBITDA 17.7.
• Total debt is $38.86 billion and cash $8.31 billion, for net debt of about $30.6 billion. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $11.41 billion and ROIC is 9.4%. The dividend yield is 1.57% and the payout ratio 51.4%.
• Missile orders are accelerating: from late September to early October it won multiyear contracts for AMRAAM (up to $20.7 billion), SM-6 (up to $24.4 billion) and SM-3 IB ($6.3 billion) in quick succession.

News

• 2026-10-08Raytheon won a $6.3 billion multiyear contract for SM-3 IB interceptors, its third large missile contract in about two weeks, locking in more missile revenue for the next few years. The stock closed up 2.3% that day. rtx.com
• 2026-10-01The US Navy awarded Raytheon a multiyear SM-6 contract worth up to $24.4 billion (five years plus two option years), a sign the US is rebuilding its missile stockpiles. But the stock was roughly flat that day (-0.3%): the market cares more about how long the strong demand will last. rtx.com
• 2026-09-29The Pentagon awarded Raytheon an AMRAAM air-to-air missile contract worth up to $20.7 billion, aimed at nearly doubling production. It gives better visibility into the Raytheon segment's medium-term revenue. defensenews.com
• 2026-09-22Reuters reported that Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days. Oil fell and defense stocks dropped across the board; RTX was down about 3% at one point during the day and closed down 1.7%, showing that the price carries a geopolitical conflict premium. 247wallst.com
• 2026-09-15RTX named Jill Albertelli president of Pratt & Whitney. Pratt & Whitney had second-quarter revenue of $8.89 billion, more than a third of the company's total, so the leadership change matters for engine deliveries and for keeping maintenance costs under control. rtx.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-20, before the open: third-quarter earnings. Watch whether full-year adjusted EPS guidance ($7.10–$7.25) is kept or raised, along with defense orders and Pratt & Whitney margins.
• Production ramps and deliveries under the AMRAAM, SM-6, SM-3 IB and other multiyear contracts.
• The situation in Iran and progress in talks on the Strait of Hormuz, which affect the risk premium in defense stocks.
• The annual defense appropriations process in Congress; multiyear missile contracts have to be funded year by year.

Macro sensitivity

• Defense spending: the US is rebuilding its missile stockpiles, and multiyear contracts lock in demand. But the contracts depend on annual appropriations from Congress, and budget fights bring volatility.
• Geopolitics and oil: the Iran conflict pushed up oil prices and the premium on defense stocks. On September 22 the report that Hormuz would reopen sent WTI down to about $91.6, and defense stocks fell with it. Easing tensions put pressure on RTX's valuation.
• Commercial aerospace: Pratt & Whitney and Collins depend on airline flight hours and aftermarket maintenance, and high oil prices squeeze airline profits. Falling long-term rates, on the other hand, help the valuation of long-cycle businesses like these.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · sec.gov · rtx.com · rtx.com · defensenews.com · 247wallst.com · rtx.com · rtx.com

The business in brief

General Dynamics is a major US defense contractor and the maker of Gulfstream business jets. Its four segments, by expected 2026 revenue: Marine Systems about $18 billion (nuclear submarines and ships), Technologies about $14.1 billion (GDIT government IT and mission systems), Aerospace about $13.8 billion (Gulfstream business jets) and Combat Systems about $9.8 billion (armored vehicles and munitions).

Technicals

• The close of $331.27 is 9.0% below the 50-day moving average ($363.88) and 6.7% below the 200-day moving average ($354.99). Both averages sit above the price, and the trend is bearish.
• RSI is 30.6, right at the oversold line of 30.
• Support: the 30-day closing low of $326.63 (October 7) and the intraday low of $322.00 (October 8); below that, the 52-week low of $306.77, about 8% under the current price.
• Resistance: the 200-day moving average around $355, the 50-day around $364, the 30-day closing high of $379.32 (August 28) and the 52-week high of $400.00.
• Over the last 10 trading days the stock has closed in a sideways range of $326.63–$334.16, and the decline has slowed. It is down about 16% in total since closing at $395.97 on August 10.

Fundamentals

• Trailing-twelve-month revenue was $54.86 billion, up 9.1% year over year. Second-quarter revenue was $14.09 billion, up 8.1%, and EPS was $4.24, up 13.4% and above the $3.97 consensus compiled by LSEG.
• A record backlog: $136.5 billion, up 32% year over year. Second-quarter orders were $20 billion, a book-to-bill ratio of 1.4, with Combat Systems at 2.1.
• Full-year EPS guidance was raised for the second time this year, to $16.80–$16.90 (it was $16.10–$16.20 in January and $16.45–$16.55 in April), with revenue of about $55.7 billion and an operating margin of 10.5%.
• Margins: gross margin 15.4%, operating margin 10.4%, net margin 8.2%; ROIC 14.6%. In the second quarter the Aerospace segment's margin rose to 14.5%, while Combat Systems fell 30 basis points to 13.9%.
• Cheaper than RTX: P/E (TTM) 20.2 and forward 18.9 (RTX: 25.1), PEG 2.05 and EV/EBITDA 14.3. The dividend yield is 1.92% and the payout ratio 38.8%.
• A solid balance sheet: total debt of $9.48 billion and cash of $4.33 billion. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow (FCF) was $6.44 billion, about 7.2% of market value.

News

• 2026-10-09The company said it will hold its third-quarter earnings call at 9 a.m. ET on October 30. That is the next fundamental test after the stock's long slide. investorrelations.gd.com
• 2026-10-07President Danny Deep will become CEO on January 1, 2027, and Novakovic (CEO since 2013) will become executive chair. It is an internal succession, so the strategy should carry on largely unchanged. investorrelations.gd.com
• 2026-09-22The report that Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz hit defense stocks. General Dynamics closed down 3.0% that day ($353.90 to $343.39), showing that the price carries a geopolitical conflict premium. 247wallst.com
• 2026-09-03Its OTS unit signed a seven-year framework agreement with the US Department of Defense to supply missile bodies, seeker housings and other parts for ramping up PAC-3 and THAAD interceptor production, with targets of tripling and quadrupling capacity respectively. The agreement depends on annual appropriations, and its value was not disclosed. 256today.com
• 2026-08-07GDIT won a $1.3 billion network operations and cybersecurity contract from the Army National Guard, supporting orders in the Technologies segment. investorrelations.gd.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-30, before the open: third-quarter earnings, call at 9 a.m. Watch whether EPS guidance of $16.80–$16.90 holds, Gulfstream deliveries and submarine progress.
• 2027-01-01: Danny Deep formally takes over as CEO.
• Specific orders and minimum annual purchase quantities under the seven-year PAC-3 and THAAD agreement.
• The situation in Iran and the annual US defense appropriations process.

Macro sensitivity

• Defense spending: interceptors and nuclear submarines are US funding priorities. The seven-year agreement and the submarine programs provide long-term demand, but both depend on annual appropriations from Congress.
• Geopolitics: developments in the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz shift the risk premium on defense stocks; the de-escalation report on September 22 alone knocked the stock down 3% in a day.
• Rates and business jets: Gulfstream orders track corporate profits, the wealth of the affluent and the stock market. Falling long-term rates and a rising stock market usually help business-jet demand.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · govconwire.com · tikr.com · kfgo.com · investorrelations.gd.com · investorrelations.gd.com · 256today.com · investorrelations.gd.com · 247wallst.com

The business in brief

WM is North America's largest solid-waste company. Its business covers trash collection, transfer stations, landfills, recycling, and renewable natural gas made from landfill gas. Most of its revenue comes from long-term collection contracts with residential, commercial and industrial customers, and the Stericycle acquisition added a medical-waste business (WM Healthcare Solutions).

Technicals

• The close of $208.83 is 3.8% below the 50-day moving average of $217.10 and 7.0% below the 200-day moving average of $224.59. The 50-day is below the 200-day, so the medium-term trend is down.
• RSI is 44.5: neutral territory, not oversold.
• Support: the lowest close of the last 30 days, $201.90 (October 1), and the intraday low of $200.58 (October 2); below that, the 52-week low of $194.11.
• Resistance: the 50-day moving average near $217, the highest close of the last 30 days at $221.72 (September 3), and the 200-day moving average near $225; the 52-week high is $248.13.
• Since October 1 the stock has bounced from $201.90 to $208–210, roughly level with its 20-day average close of $208.87.

Fundamentals

• Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $25.67 billion, up 7.2% year over year. Q2 revenue was $6.68 billion, up 4.0%: core price rose 5.7%, while collection and disposal volume fell 1.8%.
• Profit margins are stable: gross margin 40.6%, operating margin 18.9%, net margin 11.1%. The Q2 adjusted operating EBITDA margin was 30.9%, up from 30.5% a year earlier.
• Q2 GAAP EPS was $1.95, up 8.3% year over year, and adjusted EPS was $2.02; trailing-twelve-month EPS was $7.07, up 4.9%.
• 2026 guidance: revenue was cut to $26.275–26.475 billion, while adjusted operating EBITDA of $8.15–8.25 billion and free cash flow of $3.75–3.85 billion were left unchanged.
• The valuation is on the high side: P/E (TTM) 29.5x, forward 24.6x, PEG 2.49, EV/EBITDA 13.7x. Dividend yield 1.81%, payout ratio 53.5%.
• Debt is heavy: total debt of $23.36 billion against $557 million in cash. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $3.57 billion and ROIC 11.6%. In the first half the company spent $1 billion on share buybacks and $764 million on dividends.

News

• 2026-07-28Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.02 slightly beat estimates, but weak volume led the company to cut full-year revenue guidance by about 0.6%. The stock fell about 2–3% after hours and has slid steadily from $239 since. sec.gov
• 2026-08-24The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.945 per share. The payout stays steady, which is one thing defensive holders value. businesswire.com
• 2026-08-25CEO Jim Fish announced his retirement, and President John Morris will take over as CEO on January 4, 2027. It is an internal succession, but the new CEO's approach to capital allocation is worth watching. businesswire.com
• 2026-09-24The company will report Q3 results after the close on October 27 and hold its call at 10 a.m. ET on October 28. That is when you find out whether volume has stabilized. businesswire.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-27, after the close: Q3 earnings (call on October 28). Watch whether volume has stabilized and whether full-year revenue guidance is cut again.
• 2027-01-04: John Morris takes over as CEO.
• How margins in the medical-waste business develop after the integration; in Q2 that business's adjusted EBITDA margin was 19.0%.

Macro sensitivity

• Rates: with $23.36 billion of debt and a 1.81% dividend yield, WM is a somewhat bond-like defensive stock. Falling long-term rates usually help its valuation; rising rates do the opposite.
• Economic cycle: special waste tied to industry and construction, and commercial collection volume, are sensitive to the economy. Q2 volume fell 1.8% (0.4% excluding last year's wildfire cleanup).
• Oil and inflation: diesel is the fleet's main cost, but the company has a fuel surcharge mechanism, and higher energy surcharges in Q2 partly offset the drop in volume. Price increases in an inflationary environment (core price +5.7%) are the main growth driver.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · sec.gov · ts2.tech · businesswire.com · businesswire.com · mediaroom.wm.com · businesswire.com · wastedive.com

The business in brief

J.B. Hunt is one of the largest intermodal companies in the US: it moves containers by truck over short distances and by rail over long ones. It also runs dedicated contract carriage (Dedicated), freight brokerage (ICS), full truckload, and final-mile delivery. Intermodal is the largest segment, with Q2 revenue of $1.75 billion, about half of the total.

Technicals

• The close of $229.26 is 10.3% below the 50-day moving average of $255.59 and 6.1% below the 200-day moving average of $244.18. The 50-day is still above the 200-day, but the price has fallen well below both.
• RSI is 40.2: weak, but not oversold.
• Support: the lowest close of the last 30 days, $222.64 (October 7), and the intraday low of $222.11; since September 30 the stock has repeatedly stopped falling at $222–224 intraday. The 52-week low of $136.46 is far below the current price.
• Resistance: the October 2 rebound high of $234.63, then the 200-day moving average near $244, and the gap left on September 16 ($250–271), with the 50-day moving average near $256 inside it.
• The 52-week high is $299.76, and the price is 23.5% below it; over the past 52 weeks the stock is still up 56.4%. Its beta of 1.31 means it swings more than the market.

Fundamentals

• Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $12.70 billion, up 5.3% year over year. Q2 revenue was $3.49 billion, up 19.4%, with intermodal volume up about 10%.
• Q2 EPS was $1.91, up 45.8% year over year and above the $1.73 estimate; trailing-twelve-month EPS was $7.05, up 27.9%.
• Profit margins are thin, as in most of transportation: gross margin 18.5%, operating margin 7.5%, net margin 5.3%; ROIC 14.2%.
• On September 16 the company warned that Q3 EPS could come in 5–10% below Q2, citing diesel above $6.30 a gallon, lagging fuel surcharges (about $10 million) and extra costs for recruiting drivers (about $25 million).
• Valuation: P/E (TTM) 32.5x, forward 28.2x, PEG 1.33, EV/EBITDA 13.7x. Dividend yield 0.79%, payout ratio 25.5%.
• Balance sheet: total debt of $1.40 billion and just $4.16 million in cash; trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $1.10 billion.

News

• 2026-07-15Q2 EPS of $1.91 and revenue of $3.49 billion both beat estimates, driven mainly by intermodal. The stock rose as much as 7.6% after hours and broke through its 52-week high, setting up the summer peak. talkbusiness.net
• 2026-09-16The company warned that Q3 EPS would fall 5–10% from Q2, with diesel prices up more than 70% year over year. The stock dropped 13.3% that day, the turning point for its recent trend. xtb.com
• 2026-09-17Citizens upgraded the stock to Outperform with a $300 target, citing the lower valuation, while acknowledging that fuel and hiring costs will weigh on 2026 EPS in the short term. tradersunion.com
• 2026-10-01The company set October 15, after the close, as the date for its Q3 results. The market will see how large the profit shortfall actually is. finviz.com
• 2026-10-07Truist ($295 to $235), Citi (309 to 254), BMO, JPMorgan, TD Cowen and others cut their price targets ahead of the earnings report, arguing that the rebound in freight rates comes mainly from shrinking capacity and that demand has not broadly improved. stocktwits.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-15, after the close: Q3 earnings. The consensus compiled by Fiscal AI is adjusted EPS of about $1.80 on revenue of about $3.58 billion.
• The path of diesel prices, and whether fuel surcharges can catch up with costs.
• Intermodal and contract rate negotiations; JPMorgan expects contract rates to keep rising into 2027.

Macro sensitivity

• Oil and diesel: oil prices have stayed high since the Iran conflict. In mid-September diesel topped $6.30 a gallon, up more than 70% year over year, and lagging fuel surcharges eat directly into profit.
• Freight cycle: shrinking capacity has pushed up spot rates, but demand has not broadly recovered. Higher truck rates usually push more shippers toward rail intermodal, which helps J.B. Hunt.
• Rates and consumers: intermodal carries a large share of imported consumer goods, so consumer spending and import volumes drive freight volume. Rising long-term rates raise financing costs and push down valuations.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · talkbusiness.net · ajot.com · xtb.com · tradersunion.com · finviz.com · stocktwits.com

The business in brief

Southern Company is a large regulated utility group in the southeastern US. It owns three electric utilities (Georgia Power, Alabama Power and Mississippi Power), plus a gas business, Southern Company Gas, and a wholesale generation business, Southern Power. Its revenue comes mainly from selling electricity and gas at rates approved by state regulators. Profit grows by steadily expanding investment in the power grid and power plants (the rate base) and recovering it through rates.

Technicals

• The close of $86.17 is 2.4% below the 50-day moving average of $88.25 and 6.5% below the 200-day moving average of $92.15. The 50-day is below the 200-day, so the medium-term trend is still weak.
• RSI is 51.75: neutral territory, neither oversold nor overbought. The stock rose 2.9% over the last 5 trading days, and the late-September selling pressure has eased.
• Support: the lowest close of the last 30 trading days, $82.35 (September 28); below that, the 52-week low of $81.69.
• Resistance: first the zone around the 50-day moving average at $88.25 and the highest close of the last 30 trading days, $88.99 (September 8); above that, the 200-day moving average at $92.15. The 52-week high of $100.84 is a long way off.

Fundamentals

• Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $30.18 billion, up 6.4% year over year. But Q2 2026 revenue was $6.98 billion, up only 0.06% and below the $7.23 billion analysts expected.
• Q2 earnings per share (EPS) were $1.03, up 30.4% year over year. Adjusted EPS on the company's definition was $1.13, versus $0.92 a year earlier, driven mainly by higher retail electricity sales, capitalized returns on construction in progress, and lower income taxes.
• Valuation: P/E (TTM) 20.7x, forward P/E 18.5x, PEG 2.25. Annual dividend $3.04, dividend yield 3.53%, payout ratio 73.2%.
• Profit margins: gross margin 48.3%, operating margin 27.0%, net margin 15.4%. ROIC is only 4.5%, which is normal for a capital-heavy, regulated industry.
• Balance sheet: total debt of $77.09 billion and cash of $2.98 billion. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was -$3.27 billion: capital spending exceeds operating cash flow, so the company has to keep borrowing. The $2.375 billion of convertible bonds issued in August is one example.
• Sources of growth: as of Q2 it had signed 17 GW of large-load customers, 6 GW more than in Q1. Data center electricity use rose 55% year over year in Q2, and the capital expenditure (capex) plan through 2030 is $81 billion.

News

• 2026-08-03Southern Company priced $2.375 billion of convertible notes (coupons of 2.125% and 3.50%, conversion prices of about $104.56 and $118.50) to buy back older convertibles and repay short-term debt. It shows the company raising money for its huge investment program, and future conversions will dilute shareholders somewhat. streetinsider.com
• 2026-08-04On the Q2 call the company disclosed 17 GW of signed large loads, with about 8 GW more in late-stage talks, data center usage up 55% year over year, and an $81 billion capex plan. This is the core reason the market gives Southern Company a growth premium. utilitydive.com
• 2026-08-26The Georgia Public Service Commission approved Georgia Power supplying OpenAI's 3.2 GW data center in Effingham County, with OpenAI paying for the supporting infrastructure. The company says its portfolio of large-load contracts will save about $950 million a year in system costs from 2029. The new load is locked in, and pressure on residential bills eases. walb.com
• 2026-09-21Georgia Power reached a deal under which Google will back uprates of about 96 MW at the Hatch and Vogtle nuclear plants. The company estimates about $900 million in benefits to customers over the life of the units; the deal still needs regulatory approval. It shows that big tech companies are willing to pay for clean power. powermag.com
• 2026-09-23The stock fell to $83.73 intraday, a new 52-week low. Earlier, on September 18, Morgan Stanley had cut its target from $89 to $85 and kept its Underweight rating, reflecting rising rates and valuation pressure. marketbeat.com
• 2026-10-08Hurricane Isaias was expected to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi, and Georgia Power sent repair crews in advance. Alabama Power's and Mississippi Power's service areas are in the storm's path; outages and repair costs are a short-term variable. renewableenergyworld.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-11-05: Q3 earnings report. Watch adjusted EPS, signed large-load volume, and whether the capex plan is raised.
• The Google nuclear uprate deal and the Hatch uprate application await approval from the Georgia Public Service Commission (timing not set).
• New-generation solicitations in Georgia and Alabama are expected to select projects by year-end.
• How quickly power is restored after Hurricane Isaias, and how storm costs will be recovered.

Macro sensitivity

• Long-term rates are the biggest variable. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.04% on September 15 and was about 5.27% on October 7, so Southern Company's 3.53% dividend yield looks less attractive next to bonds. Falling yields help it; further increases hurt it.
• Power demand is a positive variable. Data center electricity use rose 55% year over year in Q2, and 17 GW of large loads have been signed, driving growth in both electricity sales and investment.
• High rates also push up financing costs. With $77.09 billion of total debt and negative free cash flow, the higher rates go, the heavier the interest burden.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · southerncompany.mediaroom.com · utilitydive.com · streetinsider.com · walb.com · powermag.com · marketbeat.com · renewableenergyworld.com · kiplinger.com · 247wallst.com · investinglive.com

The business in brief

Duke Energy is one of the largest regulated electric utilities in the US. It supplies power in North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky, and runs gas businesses in some states. Its revenue comes mainly from selling electricity at rates approved by state regulators. Profit growth depends on whether investment in the power grid and power plants is approved in rate cases and built into the rates it charges.

Technicals

• The close of $116.65 is 2.4% below the 50-day moving average of $119.56 and 5.9% below the 200-day moving average of $123.99. The 50-day is below the 200-day, so the medium-term trend is weak.
• RSI is 48.98: neutral territory. The stock rose 2.2% over the last 5 trading days, a small bounce from its late-September lows.
• Support: the lowest close of the last 30 trading days, $113.23 (September 24); below that, the 52-week low of $112.40.
• Resistance: first the 50-day moving average at $119.56 and the highest close of the last 30 trading days, $121.40 (September 3); above that, the 200-day moving average at $123.99. The 52-week high is $134.49.

Fundamentals

• Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $32.80 billion, up 6.3% year over year. Q2 2026 revenue was $7.59 billion, up 1.1%, slightly below the $7.66 billion analysts expected.
• Q2 earnings per share (EPS) were $1.38, up 10.6% year over year; adjusted EPS was $1.43, versus $1.25 a year earlier. Rate cases added $0.10 and electricity volume $0.08, while depreciation and amortization (-$0.09) and interest (-$0.04) were drags.
• The company reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80. Its long-term target is 5% to 7% annual growth through 2030, and it expects to be in the upper half of that range from 2028.
• Valuation: P/E (TTM) 17.6x, forward P/E 17.3x, PEG 2.59. Annual dividend $4.34, dividend yield 3.72%, payout ratio 65.2%.
• Balance sheet: total debt of $92.21 billion and only $673 million in cash. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was -$4.27 billion and ROIC 3.8%; the large grid build-out depends on continuous financing.
• Profit margins: gross margin 52.0%, operating margin 27.0%, net margin 16.0%.

News

• 2026-08-04Duke Energy reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.43 (versus $1.25 a year earlier) and reaffirmed full-year guidance of $6.55 to $6.80. Steady results are the basic support for a defensive stock like this. sec.gov
• 2026-09-03Duke Energy Florida asked to lower rates from January 2027, cutting a typical residential monthly bill by $0.71, thanks to lower fuel costs and a tax arrangement that saves $50 million a year; a planned 2% base-rate increase was dropped as a result. That helps relations with regulators, but it also means slower near-term revenue growth in the state. wftv.com
• 2026-09-14North Carolina Attorney General Jeff Jackson called for a separate rate class for data centers and declined to support the settlement in Duke Energy Carolinas' rate case (an average 9.5% increase for residential customers). Regulatory pressure on its rate cases is rising. wect.com
• 2026-10-07Duke Energy reached a settlement with data center operators on a large-load tariff in North Carolina: new data centers must pay up front for dedicated facilities. The plan still needs approval from the North Carolina Utilities Commission. If approved, it lowers the political risk of ordinary customers paying for data centers. wunc.org
• 2026-10-08As Hurricane Isaias approached the US Gulf Coast, Duke Energy Florida activated its emergency crews and warned that restoration could be “long and difficult.” Storm repair costs and the length of outages are short-term variables. renewableenergyworld.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-11-05, before the open: Q3 earnings report. Watch whether full-year guidance holds.
• 2026-11-13: ex-dividend date (annual dividend $4.34).
• The North Carolina Utilities Commission's ruling on the large-load tariff settlement (timing not set), and progress in the rate cases of the two Carolinas subsidiaries.
• Approval of Duke Energy Florida's 2027 rate request, and recovery of Hurricane Isaias repair costs.

Macro sensitivity

• Long-term rates matter most. The Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16. The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% in mid-September and was about 5.27% on October 7, well above Duke's 3.72% dividend yield, so income investors would rather buy bonds. Falling yields help it.
• Power demand is a positive. Data center and manufacturing load is growing in the Carolinas, and on September 18 the company even asked Carolinas customers to save power during peak hours, a sign the system is stretched. That supports the need for long-term investment.
• Lower fuel prices can reduce customer bills (as in the Florida 2027 rate request). Fuel costs are generally passed through to customers via fuel clauses, so they have little effect on profit, but they do shape the regulatory and public-opinion climate.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · sec.gov · marketbeat.com · wftv.com · wect.com · wunc.org · renewableenergyworld.com · kiplinger.com · 247wallst.com · investinglive.com

The business in brief

SLB (formerly Schlumberger) is the world's largest oilfield services company. It sells oil companies reservoir evaluation, drilling and well construction, production systems and digital software. Most of its revenue comes from outside North America: Q2 international revenue was $6.67 billion, about three-quarters of total revenue of $8.97 billion. Its results track oil companies' exploration and development spending closely, and in recent years it has also been building a data center solutions business.

Technicals

• The close of $48.95 is 7.3% below the 50-day moving average of $52.80 and also 3.6% below the 200-day moving average of $50.77. Falling below the 200-day shows that the pullback that began in late August has damaged the medium-term trend, though the 50-day is still above the 200-day.
• RSI is 39.02: weak, but not yet in oversold territory below 30.
• Down 12.7% over the last 20 trading days, and about 18.6% from the August 31 close of $60.10.
• Support: the lowest close of the last 30 trading days, $47.96 (October 7). Below that, the 52-week low of $31.64 is too far away to be much of a guide.
• Resistance: first the 200-day moving average at $50.77, then the 50-day moving average at $52.80. The highest close of the last 30 trading days was $60.10 (August 31), and the 52-week high is $60.46.

Fundamentals

• Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $36.37 billion, up 2.5% year over year. Q2 revenue was $8.97 billion, up 5.0%, including $865 million from the acquired ChampionX.
• Earnings are falling: Q2 earnings per share (EPS) were $0.52, down 29.7% year over year, or $0.55 excluding charges, down 26%. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.90 billion, a profit margin of 21.2%. The Middle East conflict cut revenue in that region by 13% from the previous quarter.
• Cash flow is still solid: trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was $4.38 billion, and in Q2 the company spent $648 million to buy back 12 million shares. Dividend yield 2.41%, payout ratio 57.2%.
• Valuation: P/E (TTM) 23.8x, forward P/E 17.5x, EV/EBITDA 11.0x. The PEG is as high as 26.1 only because recent earnings growth is negative, so that metric says little here.
• Balance sheet: total debt of $12.81 billion, cash of $4.12 billion, ROIC 11.6%. Gross margin 17.0%, operating margin 14.2%, net margin 8.5%.
• New businesses: Q2 digital revenue was $697 million, up 18% year over year. Data center solutions revenue grew 63% in the first half, and the company expects an annualized run rate above $1 billion by year-end.

News

• 2026-08-25Reuters reported that SLB signed a contract with Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA that gives it access to reservoir and real-time production data and puts it in charge of upgrading the database. This opens a door for SLB to return to Venezuela, but the payment terms and the sanctions environment are still unclear. energynow.ca
• 2026-08-31SLB announced a $4.1 billion deal (about $3.4 billion in cash plus about $700 million of assumed debt) for Kelvion, a data center cooling company. It expects to close in the first half of 2027 and targets $4.5–5 billion of data center revenue in 2028. The stock closed up about 4.8% that day at $60.10, near its 52-week high. worldoil.com
• 2026-09-14Saudi Arabia shut its East-West oil pipeline after a drone attack. Citi warned that a long shutdown would hit drilling activity and said SLB has the largest exposure to Saudi Arabia; the stock fell about 5% that day. The Middle East situation cuts both ways for SLB. nasdaq.com
• 2026-09-24SLB won four multiyear integrated well-construction contracts from Saudi Aramco covering more than 450 wells, with a 3-year base term and an optional 2-year extension. It is a concrete sign that its Middle East business is recovering. slb.com
• 2026-10-08TotalEnergies signed a 15-year agreement with SLB for DrillPlan digital well planning. Long-term software contracts bring steadier recurring revenue. slb.com

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-23, before the open: Q3 earnings report. Watch whether Middle East revenue recovers, how data center revenue is progressing, and the 2027 outlook.
• The Kelvion acquisition is expected to close in the first half of 2027 and needs regulatory approval.
• How the Saudi East-West pipeline and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recover.
• The impact of Hurricane Isaias on offshore production and operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

Macro sensitivity

• Oil: in 2026, oil prices have swung wildly on the Iran war and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI was about $103.29 on September 14. On October 8, with Hurricane Isaias threatening Gulf of Mexico production, December Brent rose to about $104.00 and November WTI was about $91.30. High oil prices usually encourage oil companies to spend more, but the Middle East conflict itself has also disrupted SLB's work in the region.
• Rates and the dollar: the Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% in September, and higher borrowing costs may make oil companies more cautious. Most of SLB's revenue comes from outside the US, so a stronger dollar shrinks that revenue once it is converted into dollars.
• Power demand: after the Kelvion deal, part of SLB's growth will come from demand for cooling and power infrastructure at AI data centers, which has little to do with oil prices.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · 01net.it · energynow.ca · worldoil.com · nasdaq.com · slb.com · slb.com · oenergetice.cz · oedigital.com · kiplinger.com

The business in brief

Abbott is a diversified health care company with four businesses: medical devices (FreeStyle Libre continuous glucose monitors, electrophysiology, and heart failure and structural heart devices), diagnostics (it completed the Exact Sciences acquisition in March 2026, adding Cologuard colorectal cancer screening), nutrition (Similac infant formula, Ensure) and branded generic drugs. Medical devices are the main growth engine today.

Technicals

• The close of $99.60 is 6.2% below the 50-day moving average of $106.17 and 3.6% below the 200-day moving average of $103.34. The 50-day is still above the 200-day, but the price has broken below both, ending the August uptrend.
• RSI is 42.26: weak, but not in oversold territory below 30.
• From the August 24 close of $116.67 to $96.69 on October 1, the stock fell about 17.1%; it has recovered 2.2% over the last 5 trading days.
• Support: the lowest close of the last 30 trading days, $96.69 (October 1); below that, the 52-week low of $81.97.
• Resistance: first the round number of $100 and the 200-day moving average at $103.34, then the 50-day moving average at $106.17. The highest close of the last 30 trading days was $112.47 (August 28), and the 52-week high is $135.13.

Fundamentals

• Revenue over the trailing twelve months was $46.59 billion, up 8.1% year over year. Q2 revenue was $12.59 billion, up 13.0%, or 4.8% on a comparable basis; the difference comes mainly from consolidating Exact Sciences.
• Q2 earnings per share (EPS) were $0.53, down 47.5% year over year; adjusted EPS was $1.31, versus $1.26 a year earlier. The two measures are far apart, so keep them straight when you read an earnings report.
• Guidance: full-year adjusted EPS was raised to $5.45 to $5.60, and comparable sales growth of 6.5% to 7.5% was left unchanged; Q3 adjusted EPS guidance is $1.38 to $1.46.
• Segments: medical devices grew 8.4% on a comparable basis, including 13.4% in electrophysiology and 9.5% in continuous glucose monitoring. Nutrition fell 3.6% on a comparable basis, and rapid and molecular diagnostics fell 8.0%.
• Valuation: the P/E (TTM) of 32.2x looks high because GAAP profit is depressed; the forward P/E is 17.2x and the PEG 1.87. Dividend yield 2.53%, payout ratio 81.5%, and the company has paid a dividend for 411 consecutive quarters.
• Balance sheet: total debt of $32.72 billion, cash of $5.60 billion, and trailing-twelve-month free cash flow of $7.82 billion. Gross margin 56.9%, operating margin 17.7%, ROIC 7.5%.

News

• 2026-08-21Abbott agreed to pay $670 million to settle suits by about 2,000 plaintiffs claiming its formula for premature infants caused necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), without admitting liability. This removes some of the legal uncertainty, but many cases are still pending. claimsjournal.com
• 2026-09-08The FDA approved Abbott's TactiFlex Duo ablation catheter, which can do both pulsed field and radiofrequency ablation, for treating atrial fibrillation. Electrophysiology is one of Abbott's fastest-growing device businesses. abbott.mediaroom.com
• 2026-09-14The US Department of Justice announced that Abbott would pay about $385 million to settle False Claims Act allegations tied to contaminated infant formula from its Sturgis plant in 2022; Abbott did not admit liability. This closes the government's case over the 2022 recall. justice.gov
• 2026-10-02Rothschild & Co Redburn upgraded Abbott from Neutral to Buy and raised its target from $119 to $127. With the stock down near $100, sell-side views have started to turn positive. thestockobserver.com
• 2026-10-06Barclays started covering Abbott with an Overweight rating and a $120 target, citing the lower valuation after the recent weakness in medtech and expecting industry fundamentals to stabilize in 2027. goldesel.de

Catalysts ahead

• 2026-10-15: ex-dividend date (annual dividend $2.52).
• 2026-10-21, before the open: Q3 earnings report. Watch whether adjusted EPS lands within $1.38 to $1.46, and how Libre, cancer diagnostics and nutrition perform.
• How sales ramp up for the SimpleScreen colorectal cancer blood test (launched September 30) and TactiFlex Duo.
• What happens next in the NEC litigation over formula for premature infants.

Macro sensitivity

• Long-term rates: the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5% in mid-September and was about 5.27% on October 7, and the Fed also hiked in September. High rates lower the valuation multiples the market is willing to pay; Barclays also noted the recent broad weakness in medtech.
• The dollar: a large share of Abbott's revenue comes from outside the US, so a stronger dollar lowers its reported revenue in dollars. That is why its earnings reports also give comparable growth.
• Consumers and inflation: the nutrition business (formula, Ensure) behaves like a consumer business and fell 3.6% on a comparable basis in Q2. How sensitive consumers are to price will decide whether it can recover.

For and against

Sources: stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · stockanalysis.com · abbott.mediaroom.com · claimsjournal.com · abbott.mediaroom.com · justice.gov · thestockobserver.com · goldesel.de · marketbeat.com · hudson-labs.com · finance.yahoo.com · kiplinger.com · investinglive.com

Turn the twenty chapters into a method you can use again. Your checklist ticks are saved only in your own browser.

Four checklists

Single-stock research card

Ticker / company:            Date:
1. Why it's on the list:
2. Snapshot: close ___  vs. 50-day ___  vs. 200-day ___  RSI ___
             forward P/E ___  dividend yield ___  next earnings ___
3. Fundamentals: revenue growth ___  margins ___  debt ___  valuation vs. history ___
4. News: main reason for the drop ___
         sector drag / company-specific problem
         upcoming catalysts ___
5. Technicals: support ___  resistance ___  trend ___
6. For and against: case for a rebound ___   case for further weakness ___
7. Confirmation signal: ___     I'm wrong if (facts only): ___
8. One week later: What happened? Which call was right?

Exercises

Key terms

The main terms in this handbook, in the order they first appear.

Where to find the data

• Price, valuation, moving averages, RSI: each company's Statistics page on stockanalysis.com.
• Earnings reports and announcements: the company's investor relations website and the SEC's EDGAR database.
• News: Reuters, CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg, Barron's, MarketWatch.
• Macro: Fed meeting statements and minutes, US Treasury yield data, and oil price data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).